“Why would it need to be Spetnaz?”
Past behavior (by Putin before and after collapse of USSR in Lithuania, Chechnya, Georgia, Moldova, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Crimea) is the best indicator of future behavior, IMO.
http://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/gorbachev-meets-with-lithuanian-prime-minister
“Despite optimistic press releases concerning their talks, it quickly became apparent that Lithuania would not back down on its claim to independence. After imposing economic sanctions and threatening military action, the Soviet Union launched a full-scale military assault against Lithuania in January 1991.”
http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702303532704579476972067682740
Moscow has already consolidated its control over Armenia. Yerevan, like Tbilisi, had negotiated an association agreement with the European Union in July 2013. Yet Mr. Putin two months later bullied Yerevan to join his own custom union instead. And in both Georgia and Azerbaijan, Mr. Putin is investing in pro-Russian constituencies among opposition politicians, civil-society groups and ethnic minorities. Leaders in both Azerbaijan and Georgia have been left unimpressed by the Western reaction to the Crimea crisis. Both wonder when and where the risks of their pro-Western foreign policies outweigh the benefits.
Thanks Seizethecarp.