Posted on 04/01/2014 5:08:21 AM PDT by thackney
The oil industry’s leading trade group on Monday cast exports of U.S. crude as an economic win for consumers, fighting against criticism that selling the fossil fuel overseas would mean higher prices at home.
The American Petroleum Institute commissioned a study by ICF International and EnSys Energy predicting lower gasoline prices, domestic job growth and other economic benefits if the United States lifts its 39-year-old ban on exporting U.S. crude.
“Consumers are among the first to benefit from free trade, and crude oil is no exception,” said API Vice President Kyle Isakower told reporters in a conference call Monday. “Gasoline costs are tied to a global market, and this study shows that additional exports could help increase supplies, put downward pressure on the prices at the pump and bring more jobs to America.”
The new study finds that oil exports would reach 2 million barrels per day by 2017 — nearly a quarter of current production — if the trade restrictions were lifted.
The big beneficiaries would be domestic oil producers, who would see U.S. crude prices climb closer to global benchmark, Brent crude.
Lower gasoline prices
The study determined that, if crude oil exports were allowed, gasoline prices in the United States would cost 1.4 to 2.3 cents less per gallon between 2015 and 2035, measured in 2011 dollars. Lower overall costs for gasoline, heating oil and diesel could yield an extra $5.8 billion in annual consumer savings, ICF International and EnSys Energy found.
Critics of easing the export ban, including Sen. Ed Markey, D-Mass., have argued that by sending domestic oil prices higher, gasoline costs would inevitably climb.
API’s Isakower said the ICF report was “the most detailed analysis available” on the wide-ranging economic effects of potential crude exports, though at least three other studies are currently in the works, including one from the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
Refiners profits
But the margins for domestic refiners would be squeezed if the export ban were lifted, because they would pay more for crude oil even as the price of the resulting gasoline dips slightly, ICF said.
If exports were allowed, “the increase in domestic crude prices is much larger than the reduction in world crude oil prices, and so the average cost of crude to U.S. refineries goes up more than do refined product prices,” the study said. “This is the major reason why refinery margins decline.”
ICF’s discussion of how oil exports would shake up U.S. refining puts new numbers behind the sector’s apprehension on the issue. Under the current dynamic, refiners are able to freely export gasoline, diesel and other petroleum products, even though the U.S. largely blocks exports of raw, unprocessed crude. The scenario ensures they have been exporting record amounts of the refined products and enjoying relatively high margins, as domestic oil production surges.
“The lower prices for U.S. oil, a result of surging production, improve U.S. refinery margins but do not reduce gasoline or diesel prices,” the study said, because refiners “have the ability to export these products at global market prices.”
With the prospect of oil exports threatening that dynamic, some small, independent refiners have formed a coalition to fight changes to the 39-year-old trade restrictions.
Oil industry leaders say exports also are needed to help resolve a mismatch between domestic production of light, sweet crude, and U.S. refineries optimized for processing heavier varieties.
“Often, it makes sense to export a surplus of expensive, light oil from one region and import cheaper, heavy oil in another, rather than ship more expensive oil cross-country,” Isakower said. “This is especially true in the absence of sufficient infrastructure to efficiently transport crude to the refineries that could use it. But export restrictions effectively insulate consumers from the positive benefits of efficient markets.”
Benefits of exports
The report also predicted that expanding crude exports would:
spur as much as $70.2 billion in additional investment in U.S. oil exploration, development and production between 2015 and 2020. put an extra 110,000 to 500,000 barrels online every day in 2020. boost U.S. refinery throughput by 100,000 barrels per day from 2015 to 2035, by ending refinery process bottlenecks caused by mismatched crudes. support 300,000 new jobs across the economy in 2020.
With all the technicalitys aside, if it lowers our trade imbalance and national debt then I am all for it.
Soooo,....EXPORT!!!!
I wholeheartedly agree, but we’ll still need more exploration and drilling.
True but once they dial in the Permian Basin some really awesome things happen. Why? Because the size of the addressable oil there byo current tech is second only to that that of the world’s largest oil field — Saudi Arabia’s gandhar oil field.
The permian basin is currently producing over 1 million barrels@ day. But permian production increases have been very gradual —unlike the baaken and eagle ford whose production increases have been almost parabolic.
the reason for the permian basin’s slow rise is that roughly half the wells there are still vertical wells and the drillers haven’t yet dialed into the sweet spots where a single pad can drill 30 wells at different depths and directions and find all the oil available for a quarter mile in every direction.
When they did this in the baaken and eagle ford —production went straight up.
That’s what will happen in the permian basin in about 2 years. When that does — the permian basin will single handedly produce 1 million barrel@ year production increases for a couple years. That basin will top out at somewhere plus or minus 5 million barrel’s a day.
What’s more the Permian basin could keep up those production rates for 3-4 decades. But I think somewhere between 2020 and 2030 —oil prices will crash and burn down to $60@barrel range or less. (Why $60? Here’s my wag. You have to figure that in terms of btu—that is apples to apples — natural gas and coal are sitting currently at the equivalent of about $40@barrel. The more oil the USA pumps the higher the dollar is going to go. That is the next big secular move for the dollar is up.)
But why would oil go down. Supply is falling most oil fields around the world while demand just keeps going up with risiing world wide prosperity. So US oil production increases will only just keep up with rising demand and falling supply. Why would oil go down?
I think that Tesla, electric cars and natural gas will cut the demand for oil. But it won’t even make a blip in demand until after 2020 and won’t start to have any meaning until later in the 2020’s.
By 2030 the oil demand will be capped.
A parallel development sometime in the 2020’s with electric cars will be some kind of 4th generation nuclear plant which will deliver electricity for 1/4-1/10th current prices.
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