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To: annalex
Putin never wanted to get bogged down in occupying territory

Then why is he occupying Crimea?


Occupying the overwhelmingly Russian Crimea is very different than occupying even eastern and southern Ukraine, let alone the rest of Ukraine. It is one of the few areas where he can be certain that Russia will not get bogged down.

I don't see how your link supports the notion that he is "backpedaling"

Mr Lavrov has categorically denied any plans for an invasion.


You assume that they planned an invasion. They may have been preparing for all eventualities, but it wasn't likely to be their first choice. This is like pretending to be insisting on selling a car for no less than 10k, when it is actually worth 5k, and then "backpedaling" to 7k. There is no "backpedaling", because the threat was just an integral part of negotiation.

what he has wanted all along -- the Crimea, land access, and a politically divided Ukraine.

Unless he invades continental Ukraine he gets no land access to Crimea ...


Eastern Ukraine doesn't have to become part of Russia in order for him to be guaranteed land access to the Crimea. All he needs is for the relevant areas to have pro-Russian governments, and for the constitution to greatly limit the power of Kiev over those regions.

I agree that his best game now is leaving Crimea and negotiating a federal Ukraine, but troops massed up at the border indicate that the plan was to invade and something did not work out for him. He probably expected to foment more pro-Soviet unrest, and did not get enough.

Given that this was the most likely outcome from the beginning (absorb Crimea, credibly threaten invasion, and "negotiate" a changed Ukrainian constitution to favor Russian interests), I don't see any reason to believe that he was actually intending to invade Ukraine, and therefore no reason to believe that he changed his mind. Why in the world would he actually invade Ukraine proper? It would have been an expensive mess (both politically and economically), and could have been a long term disaster. Furthermore, any gains could have just as easily been accrued by following a strategy more like what he is doing, with very little long term costs.

Given how counterproductive an invasion would have been, and how easy it has been for him to be in a position where he can get everything he wanted at little cost, it would take a lot more evidence than just massed troops on the border, to be a convincing argument that he actually was planning an invasion. He may be, and may have his eyes on areas beyond Ukraine, but the most obvious explanation is that we have been outplayed.
60 posted on 03/30/2014 7:51:58 PM PDT by jjsheridan5
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To: jjsheridan5
Occupying the overwhelmingly Russian Crimea is very different

First, it is still occupation. Second, the same region voted to secede from the USSR in 1991, and it contains sizable Ukrainian and Tartar minorities that do not want to be ruled from the Kremlin. I agree that it is the easiest to control, but make no mistake about it, there will be resistance to the occupation in Crimea as well.

You assume that they planned an invasion

There were massive formations in aggressive posture around the border, including medical units, so that is why I think that the evidence shows preparedness for invasion. Obviously, any time an invasion is prepared there is a chance that the adversary folds and there is no need to invade. But nothing was yielded to the Kremlin and yet they now claim, essentially, what you are claiming, that they did not have plans to invade. In the meantime the window for invasion is closing because the Ukrainian government is organizing itself and apparently has gotten sufficient guarantees from the West. And so the Sovs backed off.

All he needs is for the relevant areas to have pro-Russian governments, and for the constitution to greatly limit the power of Kiev over those regions.

And he is so nicely asking for it, how can anyone refuse? The Kremlin is not getting any of that unless it invades and occupies the East, -- which is declared to be not the case.

Given how counterproductive an invasion would have been, and how easy it has been for him to be in a position where he can get everything he wanted at little cost

It was perhaps doable, -- still not easy -- before the troops in Crimea. At this point RF is seen as a clear aggressor that must not get appeased.

65 posted on 03/31/2014 5:39:47 AM PDT by annalex (fear them not)
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To: jjsheridan5
excellent analysis bttt
107 posted on 03/31/2014 4:02:24 PM PDT by BlueDragon (You can observe a lot just by watching. Yogi Berra)
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