I haven’t seen that actual data, but I did listen to a video from an INMARSAT spokesperson who only gave a very general reference to having used doppler calculations to determine the southern route was “most likely”. He also added that this is the first time in their 34 year history they have ever attempted to locate a missing plane by this method, and went on to give a commercial for mandating the use of tracking systems like ADS-B (which I agree with).
My comment should have bee more specific, that the Malaysian PM is the one who made the absolute no-doubt proclamations. What I heard from INMARSAT was more tentative. Still, it’s a big ocean, and a crash at sea has always been the most likely outcome. I’ll accept the INMARSAT analysis, but I guess I just don’t have a good enough sense for why no debris has been recovered yet.
My understanding is that the initial search area in the South Indian Ocean was about the size of Alaska. How long do you think it would take when searching from air and satellite only to find a plane that crashed somewhere in Alaska?
In the case of flight-370, any debris may now be +1,500 miles from the crash site and widely dispersed amongst all manner of other floating trash.