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To: Paul R.
RE: “So, why does Putin need Crimea so badly, when he was in little danger of losing the base there anyway?”

Not sure I agree with that.

The crisis came to a head when a moderately pro-Putin government was overthrown.

Long term, it's not clear to me what sort of government will replace the old one.

I think Putin's hand was, to some extent, forced by the political uncertainty in Ukraine.

But, Putin has certainly been opportunistic, too, since Crimea is majority Russian, and Obama is a comically weak president.

54 posted on 03/29/2014 10:38:45 PM PDT by zeestephen
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To: zeestephen

Well, supposedly there are Russian statements out there criticizing Yanukovych: They could have regurgitated those after Yanukovych was voted out by Parliament, expressed support for the Ukrainian people and hope to work well with a couple of the moderate pols. They could have not made any threatening moves, and maybe “house arrest” / detain Yanukovych in a nice hotel while “investigating crimes against our Ukrainian brothers” for a while. That would have defused any of the more extreme of the Right Sector types, who have never been a significant political force in Ukraine anyway. The rest, as I said, are sensible enough to have not threatened that lease. “money talks”.

Even if all that failed, Ukraine could not push Russia out of Crimea without a major provocation by Russia to energize the people.

However, Russian paranoia, opportunism, and a greater plan, I suspect, won over a more restrained approach.


56 posted on 03/29/2014 11:39:17 PM PDT by Paul R. (Leftists desire to control everything; In the end they invariably control nothing worth a damn.)
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To: zeestephen

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/ukraine/10731848/Petro-Poroshenko-the-billionaire-chocolate-baron-hoping-to-become-Ukraines-next-president.html


57 posted on 03/29/2014 11:54:18 PM PDT by Paul R. (Leftists desire to control everything; In the end they invariably control nothing worth a damn.)
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