Legality of the Crimean Referendum: Legal Analysis

27. The Constitution of Ukraine like other constitutions of Council of Europe member states, provides for the indivisibility of the country and does not allow the holding of any local referendum on secession from Ukraine. This results in particular from Articles 1, 2, 73 and 157 of the Constitution. These provisions in conjunction with Chapter X of the Constitution show that this prohibition also applies to the Autonomous Republic of Crimea and the Constitution of Crimea does not allow the Supreme Soviet of Crimea to call such a referendum. Only a consultative referendum on increased autonomy could be permissible under the Ukrainian Constitution.

28. Moreover, circumstances in Crimea did not allow the holding of a referendum in line with European democratic standards. Any referendum on the status of a territory should have been preceded by serious negotiations among all stakeholders. Such negotiations did not take place.

Remember, Putin called the dissolution of the USSR a tragedy.

Now, do I believe that Putin seeks to physically reestablish the Russian Empire as it was in 1914? No, I believe the man is far too intelligent to harbor such a fantasy.

What I do think he wants to establish some sort of “protectorate” over Belarus, Ukraine, the Caucasian, and the Baltic states. As to Russia's relationship to the Central Asian states, I think a “protectorate” is less probable.

What this “protectorate” would entail, I don't know; and I think its form would vary from country to country.

I believe he will let Poland and the other east European states go their own way, as attempting to control them would only arouse intense antagonism in the West.

I believe Putin wants to establish some sort of trading alliance/bloc with China. Russian energy in exchange for Chinese money would go a long way to modernizing the Russian economy. I think Putin sees this sort of bloc as a Eurasian counterweight to the maritime EU/NATO alliance.

Will this happen? I don't know, but none of it is outside the realm of possibility. If attempted, its success would depend on Putin recognition of limits; that is, his acceptance that none of it could be established except over a long period of time. All he can do is to take the first small bites - such as Crimea - and leave the rest of the meal to his successors.

Never forget that old truism, “Russia is never as strong as it looks or a weak as it looks.”

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.