Here’s all the polling according to RCP.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/senate/ky/kentucky_senate_republican_primary-3489.html
Bevin/Grimes poll avg. has Bevin up 0.6
McConnell/Grimes poll avg. has Grimes up 0.5
McConnell/Bevin poll avg. has McConnell up 31.7
The R/D matchups are a wash given the MOE’s
Bevin has 60 days to turn the primary around in his favor
I’d like to reiterate and expand my comments from previous threads on the current weird polls.
They are being driven by the mechanics of the current campaign. Where Grimes is beating up on McConnell, Bevins is beating up on McConnell and McConnell is beating up on Bevins and Grimes (in that order of priority and severity)
As a snapshot they make sense. But they are in no way indicative of what the polls will look like when this campaign (GOP primary) ends and the next one (general election) begins.
So any polling based argument in support of a candidate needs to show more than just what they are; it needs to show an analysis of why they’ll persist (or change) once the race solidifies to the GOP nominee vs Grimes.
I maintain that Bevins looks good in the polling vs Grimes now, because of the mechanics described above. But that he has substantial and possibly insurmountable weaknesses in a go it alone campaign against Grimes and the KY state Dem machine.