“I wish Ukrainians never gave up nukes...”
Russian military equipment does not, generally, have serial numbers. According to General Lebed the Soviet union does not know how many nukes it produced or where they all are and he was in charge of production. He said he made 100 suitcase nukes for the KGB but after the fall of the Soviet Union he went to get them back and the KGB said they didn’t have any nukes. So, did the Ukraine give them all up? Do they even know where they all were? Some probably fell into non-governmental hands because that’s how things work over there. A sergeant brought a buyer onto an airfield, fueled and armed a freshly refurbished Mig-29 and the buyer flew it away. The sergeant got arrested but to my knowledge they never found the Mig. If you can lose a plane that big, imagine something you could fit in a suitcase.
I sincerely hope nobody uses one. But I’d put the odds at above zero and less than 100%.
I hope you are right. If there ever is a good time to use them - it would be now.