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You don’t get it

You think it will all be alright, that the Soviets aren’t on the march. But they are and there is nothing to stop them. You think they are going to exercise self restraint?

No. They aren’t going to exercise self restraint.

And what would YOU do if you were commanding 5,000 tankers and infantry?

Please tell me how you would protect them from the latest generation fighter bombers? How would protect them from modern tanks with modern night fighting capabilities.

After your 5,000 men are turned into 2,000 men, what will you do then? They will not get out. They will be “captured” by the Russians. How did that work out for the Germans?

They will surrender the 5,000 or move them. They will cede Eastern Ukraine. Then they will beg NATO for membership.

You don’t get it ... You think it will all be alright, that the Soviets aren’t on the march.

Did I ever say any such thing? No. It is pointless to discuss something with someone who simply makes crap up.

But they are and there is nothing to stop them. You think they are going to exercise self restraint?

Nobody knows at this point. There is a strategic advantage for Russia to have a politically divided (and therefore politically paralyzed) Ukraine. With their economic leverage, they can keep Ukraine as it was -- a valuable buffer state between themselves and NATO. A federation leaving a pro-Russian eastern Ukraine would make some strategic sense. But they have many options available to them. They are quite smart, and do not necessarily follow the comic-book level thinking displayed by the "the commies are on the march" crowd.

Should they go after the heart of Ukraine, they will find themselves entangled in a morass. They may decide it is worth it, but I doubt it. Ukraine is a large, well-populated country, and any long-term resistance would be well supplied from the west. Russia also has to think about the economic implications. While they are richer than they were, they are not a rich country. A prolonged, expensive conflict/occupation would carry with it the risk of losing everything that they have gained over the last decade.

Personally, I think that they will decide that the costs aren't worth it, and will look to keep an internally divided Ukraine as a buffer state. But if they decide that Ukraine is gone, and no amount of economic leverage can keep them from becoming part of Europe, then they may indeed look to take a much bigger chunk than just the Crimea. In that case, Ukraine's best bet is to make occupation as painful as possible. Throwing out a suicidal trip-wire, however, does more harm than good.