the question is how will the added production from the USA, Canada and maybe Iraq if that country doesn’t plunge into civil war—plus maybe a bit more from the new oil fields in east africa — affect world wide oil prices in the next 1-6 years. You have to make that calculation in the face of declining production in a lot of older fields and rising world wide demand.
If you figure out a way to accurately make that calculation, and update with changes, Bill Gates would come see you about financing...