Putin will announce to his Parliament that the people of Crimea, under duress and ad being abused by the rest of Ukraine invited Russia to help, and then voted to become a part of Russia and that it is imperative for the Russian assembly to vote equally unanimously to annex Crimea according o their wishes. Then a vote will follow that does exactly that.
It will not matter to Putin or those Russian elected officials what Barack Obama or John Kerry say about it or drone on regarding it. Those two have done NOTHING to stop or deter a man like Putin. He understands one thing...force.
The only question now is whether the will be satisfied with just the one Province of the Ukraine.
Potential things the US could have done (or still could do):
1. Immediately begin sending C-17s into Kiev with military supplies, military advisors, military trainers, humanitatiran supplies, and small security detachments to protect the same. Make it a rive rof C-17s, and ensure those aircraft are escorted into and out of Kiev and other major cities in the Ukraine at the invite of the Ukraine.
2. Immediately release all restrictions on the exploration, extraction, and production of natural gas and oil, and restrictions on its import to Europe. Sadly, this should have been done (and was in the process of being done) in 2008 as Bush left office...but Obama turned it all off. It will now take 3-5 years to be in a position to address Europe’s needs, but starting the process will send the message and impact the Ruble.
3. Take whatever financial means necessary to isolate the Ruble as a world currency.
Europe will never join with us in number 3, until they are sure we are serious about number 2. Putin will never believe we are truly serious about number 2, until we do something like number 1.
We just turned down sending Ukraine military assistance and arms.
That’s why Putin went ahead. He sees the Germans are already wobbling.
Without American leadership, Europe will do the minimum it can to avoid Russian retaliation because no one in Europe can count on Obama.
And Americans don’t care about Crimea and Obama as unpopular as he is at home, is not going to arm-wrestle with Putin. Every one knows it.
He will not be. Why should he? Obama blusters, Europe waits for him, and no action is taken. All Putin sees is a clear path to take back all of Ukraine and begin the Cold War all over again. And I would not be surprised that he will go ahead with nuking the US while Obama is still in charge.
Is the ruble really a world currency?