Just stand back and look at a map of Eastern Europe.
Draw out the route that Hitler used to attack Russia.
Then start with Moscow and draw the route in reverse, using the same strategy...
I will give you a hint that the Ukraine borders with Poland.
Then sit down in a quiet place and put yourself in a Russians shoes looking though the history glass, the Olympic opening and closing ceremonies and think as they think, and as Putin thinks.
The end game should not be too hard to figure out. And based on the history of the past coupled with the declining importance of the US and it's current geopolitical ambitions and it's ignorant populace and policy, as well as it's huge and growing debt burden, you can see why he thinks it's doable and can be done conventionally, without American intervention which is the only power that could defeat him.
Certainly the Russians don’t think they could just march into Poland without sustaining a massive loss of life. Poles will fight them tooth and nail, and this isn’t 1939, they are well equipped and will be highly motivated.
You got it. And the issue is not merely Crimea, as many tend to think offering rational explanation based on history or propaganda, that’s a small bite for Russia, the bear has a bigger appetite that has never been fully satisfied in his 1,000 year history. There’ll be next places.
You couldn’t be more wrong. Historically, Russia has never shown an interest in invading Europe. But they are deeply worried that Europe will invade them, as did Fredrich the Great, Napoleon, The British in Crimea in the 1850s, and the allies in WWI, and WWII. That single fear explains every move they make, and the west simply ignores it or actually feeds the fear.
After WWII they viewed eastern Europe as their safety barrier so that nobody could repeat the Nazi invasion again. After 20 million dead, They gave the world the finger and held eastern Europe as a giant prison buffer zone.
When the wall came down, sane leadership in the west could have taken us to a place much different than today. But we decided expanding NATO right up to the Russian border would be more fun.
Now we are seeing how Russia acts when it feels a threat right on its border. Its almost a forgone conclusion that an EU Ukraine would invite in NATO forces, and that the west will begin to try to destabilize Moscow as it did Kiev.
As Putin said, we really are watching a “monkey with a hand grenade”.