Posted on 03/12/2014 12:04:06 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
Core Democratic constituences will never abandon Obama.
But few of them feel enthused about Obamacare, which isn’t getting them excited to turn out to vote in the mid-terms.
Obama has 40% support and that is his base. He is never going to drop below it, which is scant help for endangered Democrats this fall.
The Republicans should start calling it Democratcare.
What did the oracle of 2012, Nate Silver, predict?
I don't think we heard from NS this round. I thought he was moving on to sports at ESPN.
The CD 13 is not the Red district that people assumes. The 13 when Bill Young was elected first was mostly rural and small towns with a bit of St Pete (at the time a Republican area). Now, the 13 is urban with a large minority majority area and St Pete is not a Republican city, Republican can still win, but mostly it is blacks, Latinos and gays. The Republicans moved to Hillsborough and Pasco Counties.
The demographics have changed sharply over the years. It was fully expected that, when Young left the seat, it would go Democrat.
Indeed, the Republican Florida legislature moved a substantial part of St. Petersburg into the district after the 2010 census -- essentially conceding the district, believing it would help Republican prospects in adjoining districts.
Obama carried the district in both 2008 and 2012, while Sink won the district in her 2010 governor's race.
It was an important win.
Unless Boehner and McConnell remain the leaders of their respective majorities.
In which case, we'll likely give away every square inch gained.
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