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If there is a flaw in my analysis, it is not the logic, but the data.

"PPP's newest Kentucky poll finds that Mitch McConnell is the least popular Senator in the country and as a result Alison Lundergan Grimes is remaining very competitive with him, even as Democrats have struggled nationally over the last couple months."

From a Hot Air article:

"Three of the four Kentucky polls taken so far this year have come from left- or right-leaning pollsters but the topline numbers have been roughly consistent. Two have McConnell up by one, one has the race a dead heat, and the fourth has Grimes up by four."

"Solution: Nominate Matt Bevin instead? He does roughly as well against Grimes as McConnell does (trailing by two instead of leading by one) and some polls have shown him outperforming him in the general against her."" (emphasis added)

So if Bevins has a better chance of beating the Democrat in the general election, it would make sense to support him in the primary. I frankly do not understand why the polling shows McConnell so far ahead of Bevins.

If there is a flaw in my analysis, it is not the logic, but the data.

The data is just a snapshot. Everything else from now until November required predictive analysis. We can figure out what the big issues and trends will be pretty well. At the top of the list is ObamaCare ... not because it's a big issue right now, but because it's going to persist with a cascading series of events that are going to inflict increasing amounts of pain on a big chunk of the mid-term electorate.

In KY you can't really call, now, an election for an insurgent challenger (Bevins) who will have no support (and indeed might even be actively undermined) by his own state and nation party and is going up against an establishment candidate (Grimes) with exceptionally strong state and national backing by a Party that has a good track record of winning state-wide elections. Indeed, similar past situations (IN, MO, DE) clearly show a pattern of similar insurgent challengers getting crushed.