Military radar assumedly paints civilian aircraft each revolution of the transmit antenna, and unless Malaysia has phased array technology, it can be minutes between sweeps.
I also assume Malaysia has the ability to recall radar data for review, on demand.
Media reports had the US searching west of Malaysia, Sunday or Monday, and the US didn’t comment, or deny those reports, at any point since.
That indicates to me that Malaysian radar replays were persuasive enough for the US command to allocate resources to searching the Malacca Strait.
Its possible Malaysia got it wrong, between ssweeps, picked up a different aircraft, and the US allocated search assets just in case.
It’s also possible Malaysia got it right, which has some support in that the US mentioned “thorough” sat coverage not showing any explosion, and/or splash, no debris found yet, etc.
If that aircraft turned west, lost altitude, and went silent all at once, foul play is almost certain. From there, lack of official comment makes perfect sense. Officials would be looking to mount a potential rescue of the passengers, or would be aware a potential 9/11 style weapon was on the loose.
This is why I stopped speculating earlier today, until the media caught up with this thinking.
If the goal was to capture a large commercial aircraft, the planning would include an attempt to break civilian and military contact from the plane, pilot controlled, autonomous, and passenger initiated. Some sort of maneuver, altitude, heading, speed changes, or more likely all three.
If operational concerns required overflying Malaysia, yet another attempt to break contact would be likely, after clearing Malaysian airspace, which is what we are being told has happened.
From there, there are at least three possibilities. An ocean crash outside the area of second lost contact, evasion of additional surveillance and a landing, or evasion followed by a crash on land.
Until the aircraft or debris is located, additional information will be close hold, pending a potential rescue or, recapturing the plane, or its deliberate destruction. If any officianls know where it is, they would remain silent, until it was secured, and quite possibly even.....
However...there was a clear attempt to deny the public information regarding radar tracking after the initial loss of contact, but that info eventually emerged. Secrets are hard to keep for long.
A dangerous adversary would prolong options, possibly including live passengers, unless they thought the risks outweighed the bargaining leverage.
A solid plan would have to assume eventual discovery, and either hide the aircraft well, or use it for its intended purpose as quickly as possible.
It hasn’t been used yet. The longer it remains missing, the more likely I consider a crash, or an error on the part of Malaysian radar interpretation.
The most likely scenario is the simplest one. The comms mast on the underside of the fuselage separated from the plane in flight. There seems to be a known weakness due to improper use of adhesives and there is supposedly an AD for this issued by the FAA. With the mast gone there is no comms and there is a small hole in the fuselage. The cabin gradually decompresses and incapacitates the crew. They attempt turn back and program the autopilot to descend, then go to sleep. The plane goes down to 3,000 feet, levels off, and flies into the Indian Ocean until the fuel is exhausted.
The passports, cell phones, hijacking, accidental shoot-downs are just conjecture. The fact is the comms mast has been found to have cracks and probably just fell off.