The Crimea is Russia’s REAL “red line.” (Note I said Crimea, not Ukraine.)
Crimea was part of Russia for over 200 years, since the 1780s, until Nikita Khrushchev literally gifted it to Ukraine in 1954 in order to purchase the support of their party bosses during his accession after the death of Stalin.
Before Russia, it belonged to the Ottoman Empire, now defunct. Before that, it belonged to the city-state of Venice, going back to before Columbus discovered America. But the Crimea was NEVER part of Ukraine, until Khrushchev’s unilateral “gift.”
(Imagine if President Eisenhower, as a dictator on his own, gave Long Island and NYC to Connecticut as part of an internal United States political deal to secure CT’s critically needed support during a contested election or coup. That is how Crimea became part of the Ukraine.)
In 1954, the political gift of the Crimea was an internal USSR matter, not an international matter. Ukraine was then the Ukraine SSR, within the USSR. In 1991, the USSR broke apart, and Khrushchev’s personal gift suddenly mattered. But despite the gift and the fluke that led Crimea to become part of the modern sovereign nation of Ukraine, Crimea has always been 90%+ ethnic Russian, and as always, it contains Russia’s most critical naval bases, air force bases and sea ports.
In fact, Crimea is far more Russian than Hawaii is American. It’s foolish and naïve to believe that the Russians will risk losing the Crimea during a period of chaos in greater Ukraine.
If you want to see Russia’s REAL “red line,” threaten their control of the Crimea, and its naval bases and seaports. I’m not supporting Russia’s position, I just want folks to know that this is a much more complicated picture than “Evil Russia invades poor innocent Ukraine,” which is the kindergarten/MSM version of Crimean history.
(Just ask the Brits about stumbling into wars in the Crimea.)