Putin’s reality is his control over substantial flows of oil and gas, especially to Germany.
Yup. Putin holds the cards.
Yeah, and what is Putin going to do with all that oil and gas? Sell it to someone else, freeing up supplies elsewhere? Stop producing, throwing a big chunk of his population out of work and stopping cash flow to his oligarch buddies? The best he can do is cause a price spike just as the winter heating season is winding down. Putin's problem is that he essentially has a colonial economy based on extracting natural resources and selling them abroad. He needs foreign markets as much, if not more, than they need him.