“Cheaper feedstock can overcome the profitability. But the feedstock cost is less than the conversion cost, or it would be already profitable already in the US”
I worked LNG many years and found this a true statement(feedstock cost must be cheap). Reason Mobil built Arun plant and the Algerians built those a long time ago.
GTL might have different metrics than LNG. Have you seen a comparison of the two?
Not a direct dollars comparison. But the GTL plants in Qatar are economical because they really compete with exported LNG versus a significant local demand like in the US.
It is why companies like Shell built the GTL after the LNG facilities were already up and running in Qatar. Both were spending capital to build facilities to buy local natgas and export to another country. If there was greater profits to be made in LNG, I expect that they would have built that instead. With two other commercial GTL facilities, they had already proved their process and economics.
For reference: Same country, same company and almost the same time frame
First LNG, then as the American Market began to shift and no longer would need Nat Gas imports, the GTL. But the start of that GTL economic justification is not firm to me.
http://www.shell.com/global/aboutshell/major-projects-2/qatargas.html
http://www.shell.com/global/aboutshell/major-projects-2/pearl/overview.html