[Hieronymus]

Well, I hope that means you think that Tennessee is fairly likely and have reasons for it—it looks like a long shot to me, but I haven’t heard much lately.

[ken5050]

Look, I have no special knowledge of Texas of Tennessee politics..just a sense from what I read.. I think that there's a lot of dissatisfaction with Cornyn. In a very short campaign, 8 weeks, like this one..a lot of people are voting against him, but it's a truism also that many people need to vote FOR someone..and there's not a strong candidate in Texas..which is why I think it's the least likely of the states to pull the upset.

Tennessee's primary is in August..I think it's the last of the 5...so assume a decent anti-Cornyn showing, and then Tea party wins..or at least forcing run-offs.. in SC, KY, and Miss, and by the time Tennessee rolls around..you're gonna see $$ and volunteers pouring into the state, and the TP types will have the momentum. Also, Alexander's a lousy candidate..