Posted on 02/14/2014 1:14:48 PM PST by SeekAndFind
Similar to last week’s lackluster result from Survey USA. Unless Bevin catches fire, looks like the best-case scenario for the GOP is an exhausting dogfight to the bitter end between McConnell and Grimes that sucks in untold millions of establishment dollars aimed at protecting the Senate minority leader. Again — that’s the best-case scenario. The worst-case scenario, that that dogfight ends in decisive defeat, comes from Sean Davis:
To put Wenzel's data in perspective, it had Thompson in WI (lost by 5), Mandel in OH, (lost by 5), Romney in OH (lost by 2).
— Sean Davis (@seanmdav) February 14, 2014
In 2012, a week before the election, Wenzel had Romney at 60% favorability. Highest of any pollster all cycle. Avg. of other polls: 50%.
— Sean Davis (@seanmdav) February 14, 2014
@AndrewCQuinn I'm dangerously close to thinking we could flip 5 seats for the cost of defending Kentucky.
— Sean Davis (@seanmdav) February 14, 2014
Three of the four Kentucky polls taken so far this year have come from left- or right-leaning pollsters but the topline numbers have been roughly consistent. Two have McConnell up by one, one has the race a dead heat, and the fourth has Grimes up by four. Today’s data, as Davis notes, may be overstating McConnell’s support, if anything. Survey USA had his favorable rating at 27/50, which makes sense given that the entirety of the left and now a sizable chunk of the right consider him an enemy. Wenzel Strategies, the pollster behind this morning’s data, has his favorables at 50/47, which makes … less sense. This race may become for the GOP establishment what Wendy Davis’s race is for abortion warriors — an exceedingly challenging cause celebre that sucks money away from more winnable races.
Solution: Nominate Matt Bevin instead? He does roughly as well against Grimes as McConnell does (trailing by two instead of leading by one) and some polls have shown him outperforming him in the general against her. The risk would be that, as an unknown, he’d be easier for Democrats to define and marginalize than a bigger name like Mitch the Knife, but then that was also true of Rand Paul circa 2010 and he did okay. And yet, despite conservative groups attacking McConnell relentlessly, he still leads Bevin 59/17 in the new Wenzel data and 55/29 in Survey USA’s data last week. Why is that? I get that he’s still all but unknown to voters, but that shouldn’t matter this much; he’s running as Not Mitch McConnell, after all. You don’t need to know his name to signal your preference for ousting McConnell in a poll.
This isn’t helping either:
Matt Bevin, campaigning for Kentucky’s Senate seat in the Republican primary, said his signature on a document expressing support for the 2008 Wall Street bailouts was just a formality. But legal experts — including Bevin’s own lawyer — are dismissing the excuse.
“As a general matter if you put your signature on anything you would be at least acknowledging you don’t have a major issue with the content,” Wade R. Bridge, the attorney listed on Bevin’s 2008 filing, told Breitbart News…
“It may be true that he signed as a CEO but it would be an odd thing for a CEO to disagree with a letter that he signed and sent to the company’s shareholders or a filing that was made with the SEC,” [Cornell law prof Charles] Whitehead told Breitbart News…
Several sources told Breitbart News that the SEC would consider that the signators of the cover letter are attesting to its contents.
Securities law experts said the same thing to National Review and the Weekly Standard. (“If you express an opinion you do not hold, you violate the securities laws.”) Either Bevin’s lying when he says he opposed TARP from the beginning or he’s telling the truth but ended up on the wrong side of proper securities practice. Probably won’t matter to Not Mitch McConnell voters, but as time wears on, I think tea-party voters increasingly look at primary challengers from the following baseline: “Is this guy more Mike Lee or more Christine O’Donnell?” I.e. is this someone worth risking a seat Republicans already hold on or is this someone likely to implode in the general? Bevin’s TARP position won’t matter a bit after the primaries, but I bet he’s on a shorter leash in some GOP voters’ minds in terms of permissible mistakes than he would have been if he was running in 2010 or 2012.
Exit question: Let’s say McConnell leads Bevin by three points with a week to go before the primary and he tells Rand Paul he badly needs him to come home and do some campaigning. What does Rand do?
I’m not trying to defend McConnell, but to be fair, look at his VOTING RECORD.
On the issue of debt, spending, abortion, the balanced budget amendment, gay marriage, taxes, energy, drilling, Keystone Pipeline, gun control, Obamacare, etc. HE HAS BEEN ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF EVERY ISSUE.
One of the few issues he is weak on is immigration, but still, ONE ISSUE does not the whole economy of Kentucky make.
How can Kentuckians blame him for the mess they are in? The mess you are in came not as a result of the policies he support, but because the policies he support are LOSING in the Senate and the White House.
It makes no sense to punish him for something he isn’t responsible for.
I wish I could believe a Republican Senate would do anything different, but I don’t. It isn’t Harry Reid, and Nancy Pelosi walking all over the Republicans, it is Obama. Even with a Republican Senate, Obama will continue to beat them like a rented mule because they have no core convictions, and no plan. The next debt ceiling debate will end the same as this one because Obama will shut down the government and blame in on the “radical” congress. These guys haven’t got the guts to deal with Obama, and quite frankly, I am tired of having to get angry to keep my own party from governing against the will of the people.
That is the type of Rovian garbage the elites have been pushing since Reagan.
NO MORE!!!
I think a strong movement should be made whereby Conservatives vote for the RAT against the pretend RATs such as McConnell.
We are about to lose our Republic and you think voting for the most Conservative will save us?
Before we can defeat the evil RATs we need to flush the utterly evil GOPe, even if it means voting RAT (At first we will suffer, but in short order there will be no RINOs left to help the RATs.
Then the people will see a clear distinction between the parties. Of course, it is a long shot -- a collapse will likely happen first.
Just Amnesty? I think you need to seriously look at the damage the RINO McConnell has done with his votes.
Flush McConnell, even if it means a RAT wills. The GOPe must be defeated first (by all political means) before we can defeat the RATs.
RE: The GOPe must be defeated first (by all political means) before we can defeat the RATs.
That’s the attitude that got Obama his second term.
Stand back an look at reality. The fact is our Republic is on the precipice. We are about to permanent lose it. Then, look at the girly man we call McConnel.
What the H*ll has he done to fight the RATs with everything he has? Oh wait, he hasn't done a d*mn thing!!!
Therefore, he is betraying our Constitution by willingly staying in a leadership position allowing the RATS to walk all over him.
If McConnell has any honor, any manly respect, he would step aside and let someone with a Warrior mindset battle the evil RATs.
Because he will not, he is equally as responsible as the RATs for the demise of our once great Republic.
But yet Bevin leads the Democrat in a hypothetical November match-up. That doesn’t square.
Are you for real? Are you a Conservative?
The GOPe has been waging all out war on Conservatives -- that is what the H*ll allowed Obama to win again.
Do you think Conservatives should work with the rabid Statists that fill the GOPe? Nuts on all levels.
You have it completely backwards.
Again, Conservatives must first work to utterly destroy the GOPe politically, then take on the RATs.
Bevin against any RAT and Bevin wins.
The GOPe pukes on this site and elsewhere want you to believe otherwise.
All who think we can work with the GOPe are enemies are our Constitution.
Never again should any Conservative vote for any RINO. They must all be flushed, even if it means voting RAT.
I want McConnell, Boehner and all other girly Statists run out of town. I want Rove humiliated.
RE: . The fact is our Republic is on the precipice.
And letting Democrats retain the senate is going to stop this, or accelerate it?
We might want someone who is “pure” but you have to look at the reality we have now. We have a Senate and White House controlled by DEMOCRATS.
Pretty much every single Republican agrees on taxes and spending, the size of government and Obamacare. Pretty much every single Republican agrees on the debt. They disagree, however, on tactics. And tactics matter.
OK, if you want to support Brevin, I’m all for it. But heck, if McConnell wins the primaries, you better be damn sure that you support him over the Democrat, because if enough purist stay home, you’ll potentially lose the ability to control the Senate and overturn Obamacare.
RE: Conservatives must first work to utterly destroy the GOPe politically, then take on the RATs.
That’s going to take many election cycles to achieve. In the meantime, you’re going to have Democrat majorities in the legislature, Hillary as President and Federal and Supreme Court justices sitting in the bench for a lifetime.
I will concede your points. Once again it DOES NOT matter. Come the Primary Election I will vote for Bevin.
If McConnell wins the primary then he loses in the General Election, simple as that.
BTW We did choose Rand Paul over McConnell’s personally picked candidate. I think we did a pretty good job there, now we are going to try and do it again.
Also it has definitely not gone unnoticed at how viciously McConnell and his spoke-people attack Bevin. The most common thing I’ve heard from others goes along the line of this:
‘Too damn bad he can’t fight as hard for us as he does for his job in the senate.’
And welfare doesn’t count, the people here for the most part hate it. They are a very proud people who are proud of what they and their parents have done to make productive lives and businesses. And to lose them because of policies and regulations out of Washington makes them very pissed off indeed.
Grimes is pro amnesty, anti-gun, and anti-SCOTUS.
I hope Bevin wins the primary but these polls are BS.
Grimes is going to beat a well funded Republican candidate (Bevin or McConnell) because the bitter clingers want the minimum wage increased?
The same with Broun in Georgia. Michelle Nunn has very little chance of getting 50% at any point. The bitter clingers in Georgia want Michelle Nunn and Obama to bomb the Muzzies in Syria.
I see what you’re saying, but don’t under-rate the potential for the Dems to fund a libertarian who can bleed 4-6 points from the R side and produce a Clintonian plurality win.
There’s already a Democrat lite running as an independent like they do in Maine.
I disagree. I think it can happen quite quickly -- once we have the RINOs on the run.
But yet Bevin leads the Democrat in a hypothetical November match-up. That doesn’t square.
____________________________________________________________
It does seem odd. But what’s likely in play is that folks in Kentucky are just flat sick of McConnell, but more know McConnell’s name and he get’s the default R nomination because fewer folks know of/about Bevin.
But if you ask folks if they will vote for the D or the R...the R wins...Cuz Kentucky is mostly a red state.
The other issue out there is many folks in Kentucky are signing up for Kentucky Care aka Obamacare/Medicaid. Those folks getting this are not going to want to lose their medical coverage. How that impacts the Senate race is beyond my prognostication skills. Don’t think it bodes well for McConnell.
That’s scary.
The 6 points libertarians took in Indiana really hurt Murdoch, although he certainly helped kill himself with campaign goofs.
The Tea Party needs more of a National, Organized structure and this whole mess proves why.
McConnell has caved with Boehner over and over again. Every time he did, people here were like “we will defeat you and teach you a lesson for turning your back on conservatives”. Then the primaries come, no serious challenge is made, he gets the nod and we either get stuck with the RINO again or he gets replaced by a liberal or liberal-disguised as some moderate.
Folks, how many conservatives make up this country. At least 100,000,000?
Why is it that when work must be done and candidates must be vetted, nobody ever wants to do the hard work? Some unknown enters the ring and people just coalesce around them, until something shows things may not be right. Bevins supported TARP? Really, now, we’re going to go replace the Amensty-Caving-Establishment RINO leader and trust a guy that supported TARP? Are you kidding me? This is the best KY can do? A state that is red every General Election? Really?
Or like in AR where Cotton is running for Senate. He caved on the debt vote, but now AR voters are going to reward him by sending him to the RINO Senate? Really, how do you think he’s going to vote on debt ceilings in the future?
Ted Cruz is a prime example of getting an unknown Elected on a limited budget. It requires charisma, integrity, and a connection to voters that establishes Trust. The easy way out of doing the hard work is for people to say “Oh I don’t have the money, it’s too expensive”. A political candidate that can articulate their message on point that reasonates with the voters will trump money any day.
The problem is this vetting should have started long ago. Like right after the 2012 Election. Otherwise, who are we replacing the RINOs with? More RINOs. Or worse, a candidate ill-equipped at handling the media (IN, DE, MO, etc) and communicating their message to the voters effectively?
No more RINOs and no more dark horse candidates who fail at charisma and getting their message across effectively and lack the conservative track record to instill some kind of trust.
I wish Rush Limbaugh or Mark Levin would take a huge chunk of money, donate it to a place like Hillsdale for the Establishment of the Ronald Wilson Reagan School of Political Communication, which could serve as a training ground for how to train conservatives to run for office, articulate message, and deal with the media.
your kidding.
this k street fraud has been trying to ram thru amnesty for his billionaire pals since 2000!
this traitor funded Obamacare and hasbeen working with Reid to keep it ,
this con is boughtband paid for by K street and his crooked wigpfe wirks for K street too.
this traitor should be convicted not defended !
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