“What is the track record for AA?”
Since it is an anonymous, voluntary program nobody really knows.
My guess is that it is no worse than any other program.
Regardless of anything else one might like/love/or hate about it, the anonymity and voluntary nature is its greatest strength.
It is free, it is widely available, nobody keeps records of your attendance, it is people helping one another.
It certainly doesn’t work for everyone, it might not even work for most people, but I have no doubt it helps many people who otherwise wouldn’t/couldn’t get any help at all.
Estimates are 30 million alcoholics in the US. 1.3 million AA members in US (estimate)
Anecdotal evidence points to a 5% chance the newcomer see 5 years continuous sobriety but if the newcomer makes it to 5 years, the odds keep going up steadily after that that he or she can maintain sobriety for the rest of their lives if they choose to.