For some background I recommend watching this series of videos.
Stephen Coughlin, Part 1: Lectures on National Security & Counterterror Analysis (Introduction)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nhZe7eZK4dw
Thanks for the links. I had link that worked for his lectures. Someone zapped it.
http://www.centerforsecuritypolicy.org/p19087.xml
Great series, must watch.