We “rinos” just don’t go for rookies. Cruz has no chance in 2016 because he is a rookie. If he runs well in 2016, it will be his turn in 2020 or 2024.
The next nominee will be Romney again (not a rookie due to 2012), Paul Ryan (not a rookie because of 2012), Rick Santorum (finished 2nd in 2012 and not a rookie), Jeb Bush (not a rookie because dad and brother have been potus) or maybe Palin (not a rookie due to 2008).
Governor Walker, Governor Pawlenty. Just to name two.