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I don’t think this is very likely. It’s not just cost, although cost is an issue. It’s also what’s physically possible for a given residential user.

I priced out a $40K system for my house. Turns out, because of where I live and other geographical factors, I’d generate enough electricity to offset maybe 15% of my electricity usage. I’d have to cover my house, my detached garage, and my two sheds with solar cells to generate the bulk of the electricity that I use. At a cost way higher than $40K. And without needing the electricity for an electric car.

The problem is that I live in the middle latitudes of the US, not an area where there’s enough strong sun enough days of the year, where we can expect a certain number of days of rain and cloud cover. So, not only do costs need to fall by an order of magnitude, but efficiency needs to increase by nearly as much.

I’ve been hearing about “breakthrough” solar technology “just around the corner” since I was a teenager. I’m in my 50s, now. I figure I’ll be driving fossil fuel vehicles till I die, and so will most everyone else.