Posted on 01/21/2014 6:57:37 PM PST by PaulCruz2016
January 15-19, 2014
833 Republicans
+/-3.4%
Rand Paul: 13%
Paul Ryan: 13%
Chris Christie: 12%
Jeb Bush: 11%
Ted Cruz: 9%
Marco Rubio: 8%
Scott Walker: 6%
Bobby Jindal: 3%
John Kasich: 2%
But loads of reported political polls are in the 300 to 500 range. The marginal gain in confidence from 800 to 1100 is quite small.
Also, most national polls include voters from both parties, so only a third or so are Republicans.
With due respect, very few are in the 300-500 range - the smallest in the 500-600 range and all of those are lampooned for how small they are. Most of the big time polls are 1000+.
For example, Gallup and Rasmussen’s daily tracking polls have 1000 as sample….Rasmussen will use 500 for a state poll from time to time, but never national. Major polls, not daily tracking, will be in the 1500-1600 range.
Again, all of those polls include Democrats and independents as well. It is rare to get a poll with 800 Republicans.
2nd: Any person or poll that tries to assert absolutely anything about who the candidates will be, in 2016 -- BEFORE THE 2014 ELECTIONS, MIND YOU -- is a fool.
3rd: See #1.
That’s irrelevant…….math is math and sample size is sample size - and full disclosure, I’m a polling consultant. You’re in my wheelhouse here.
Then you’re not a very good one—sorry. (And I hope you work for the GOPe.)
Whenever a Gallup or some other such poll provides data based on a subset of its total sample (e.g., presidential primary preference among Republicans) its results are only are strong as the sample size of that subset: all of the Democrats and independents that were included in the larger poll are irrelevant.
Thus, this is one of the larger GOP-only sample sizes you’ll see.
Polls are fixed. They are no longer real. They are a waste of time.
you’re outta your league. Bye.
(and I’m a damned good one…)
You can’t defend or explain being dead wrong—so you hurl insults instead.
Fortunately for your business, you’re anonymous here.
Bwahaha—I see now you’re not actually anonymous!
I did defend and explain, and you missed it. You are conflating two different issues……when there is a subset and when that subset IS the entire sample….I get it, you don’t.
BTW, latest Rasmussen congressional poll? 3500 sample. Let me repeat, 3500 sample.
A national poll of 833 total sample is teeny weeny, period.
And you’re the only anonymous one in this conversation….
Then maybe you can enlighten me as to the difference between a poll that quotes the results of a subset of x number of participants versus a poll that contacts and prequalifies the same total number of participants, but only surveys that X number that fit the general poll’s subset.
Your profession regularly quotes the responses of the 12% of African-Americans in a poll, for example, and then presents that data as if it has the same validity as the poll overall.
But I do not endorse about 75% of the “profession” - which doesn’t change my original statement…that 833 is a tiny sample for a national poll….and that a “subset” is only a subset when it’s a subset…..and when the subset is the entire set, it’s not a subset anymore.
Two concepts you can’t wrap around….
But data based on a subset has no more statistical validity than the size of the subset. Those larger national polls you are referencing are typically only interviewing Republicans a third of the time. Thus, the Republican-specific results of those polls are only as statistically valid as that smaller subset of Republicans would suggest.
Again, in that context, this is actually a relatively large sample of GOP-only voters.
Just what I was thinking. These writers have too much free time on their hands. With nothing better to do they conduct these meaningless polls that very few folks are interested in this far out from the general elections in 2016. They ought to try digging into the many scandals plaguing this corrupt Obummer administration.
no, you still don’t get it….not at all…..and I’ve not the patience to splain it to you.
bye
Right, because you still can’t justify your position.
Bye-bye.
No, you can’t understand it. I can’t be held responsible for your lack of understanding.
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