Good analysis, but you might have the exact order wrong. Why do you think Japan will go down before Europe?
I put them first because of their high level of debt and their demographic implosion. The US I put last because we are not as bad demographically, we have an energy boom, and dollars are the reserve currency. Europe I just put in the middle. I also think it is very possible China will go down before we do as well. They are getting old faster than Japan.