Point 1)
Wrong, I am talking about the rate not the absolute number of casualties. If you want to discuss the problem intelligently then we will do so but first compare the Thunder Runs into Baghdad April 2003 to the debacle in the hedgerows of Normandy. In the 2003 case almost invulnerable armor while in 1944 completely vulnerable armor with a gun that could not penetrate. The WWII generation learned the hard way not to let the technology fail.
I can go on and on about this but I also lived it in the Carter Years, which is why I left and since then have done my best to warn against technological surprise.
Point 2)
The Army is probably going to RIF another 70,000, the Navy layup 3 AGC and the Air Force will illegally go out of the non-tactical airlift mission. This is not conjecture this is like it or not a decision that is being made within the next few weeks. R&T and procurement will see a decline of $141B to 2018 until the OCO is reabsorbed.
Don’t tell me about technological dead ends, I lecture on the subject and get paid to advise governments on this subject. I have seen more waste that you can possibly imagine.
As far as China goes, I am on the rooftop screaming about this one because I know the nominal Chinese Government, (either the Princelings or Old Guard) are not completely in charge. There are large elements of the PLA/(N)/(AF) that are not in control of the nominal Chinese Government, but junior officers acting rather local “Warlords”. These actions cannot be properly examined using the filter of US experience and concept of Civil control of the Military. The situation in China is now much closer to the historical period of Japan in the 1920’s and we know how that worked out.
BTW the Chinese Defense Budget, if there really is such a thing does, not have personnel costs per se in it because the PLA kind of sort of works for “free” so what you see is almost all procurement and R&T spending.
The point that I am trying to make is our duty as the older generation to assure that the next time we fight we will not be woefully unprepared as we were upon our entry in to WWII where whole divisions and Naval units were sacrificed to hold the line.
Hard choices have to be made; so what is it benefits today or blood tomorrow?
The battle of the hedgerows in Normandy was less about M-4s versus PZKW IVs and more about an intelligence failure concerning the compartmentalization and invulnerability of the centuries-old hedgerows themselves. Our forces were trapped into very close-range fire lanes and the Germans had a field day in ground they were very familiar with. In more open ground - and once an unknown innovator designed the "teeth" that could cut hedgerows - M-4 Shermans could and did exploit the relative weakness of the Panther's sides and hindquarters to good effect. The up-gunned Shermans and follow-on armor were still in the pipeline but made their presence known later.
The "Thunder Run" was glorious fun but was made possible only because the Iraqis were demoralized and on the run. A more appropriate example would be what happened to the Russian armor in Grozny. As I remember, one M1A1 was disabled in Baghdad by an RPG-7V anyway but I digress.
The point I attempted to make, that trained, talented personnel are irreplaceable and vital - and worth whatever we have to pay for them - stands. Technology as such, sometimes provides a critical edge but it really is a case of luck too. We have some well-funded technology entities - like DARPA and ONR - but a lot of their projects range from useless to poppycock because their members aren't often veterans of military service. Even the services waste billions on dumb projects, like the army's Crusader and the "Non-Line Of Sight" rocket that cost $250K per shot and the Marines' Expeditionary Fighting Vehicle which posed a heavily armored vehicle skipping across the waves and could only carry the huge engine and fuel.
We need leaders with technology creds or we are going to keep wasting big bucks on bad stuff.
Yes, we should really watch the Chinese and plan for the stuff needed to fight them - and most important of all, keep the really good people we will eventually need to fight them.