What do tyrants do when social problems boil over at home? Unite their people around patriotic themes, and send their armies abroad on adventures.
In the case of China there is a new twist, tens of millions of “barren branches,” namely the excess males due to the one-child policy coupled with ultrasound and abortion.
China might, for example, invade Taiwan and other places with the hope that the young men never return home. They can die for China, or live abroad as settlers, it won’t matter as long as they don’t return.
Projecting forward a century, there could be as many Chinese as Africans living in Africa. And I would not feel very secure in Borneo, the P.I., the Russian Far East, Australia, New Zealand etc.
“You want a wife? You want land? Find them in the Philippines, serving with the glorious PLA!” (Just don’t come home.)
They’ve been exporting their excess males already. It needn’t come to war, but I am still interested in being more than ready. I don’t think a war v. the USA would be beneficial to the Chinese.
Think of the results: trade would end, we would repudiate our debt, China would lose. There are very few benefits to war for China.
Their elites have gained enormous fortunes via crony capitalism. This saber rattling is for home consumption and that little potential pile of money being held as subsurface petroleum/gas reserves.
That's what progressives have traditionally said happens, but that's not what really happens. Governments have expansive territorial goals when they are strong. Attempting to expand during a period of weakness means defeat in war and immediate defenestration. Was any of Britain's territorial expansion done during a period of weakness? Heck, maybe the Byzantines should simply have attacked the Turks instead of fighting amongst themselves. The reality is that they fought each other because they were weak, and it would have been suicidal to fight the Turks.
Possibly, certainly not out of the realm of reality, but many of China’s men are in the 35 year old range and no longer have that nesting feeling. They want money and prosperity. They seek a better life and children keep them from it to some degree. I think the lack of women issue has been overblown to some extent and while what you say about sending men off to war to divert attention is very true, I think China is looking to stretch its economic muscles, including military sales, as much as it may want to stretch its military muscles. The Chinese do encourage their people to live in foreign lands, send back ideas and technologies, and integrate; of course, as long as all that benefits China.