The Russians are counting on keeping the various nationalities and sectarian groups pointing their weapons (so far, conventional only) at each other instead of at Russia, which isn’t that far off what the US does, or for that matter, what China does when necessary. India’s emergence as a great power and Pakistan’s steady disintegration means that what happens in Iran in particular has more importance to both Russia and China, and also in India.
And what happens in Pakistan is of great concern in Iran, which is a patchwork of different ethnic groups, just as Pakistan and most of Middle East and moslem world is and has been for some time now. Reconsolidation of Afghanistan and Pakistan into as many as a dozen new states will probably be a done deal in less than a generation.
The metal ores in Africa (whatever petroleum is there is largely already in development) are the current big play, and Russia has been out of play in Africa for some years; China’s in Sudan and here and there trying to get a toe in elsewhere, mostly in the rest of the Horn; the big player is Iran, and this is a great danger to us.