Posted on 11/08/2013 10:32:19 AM PST by thackney
Forty years ago this month, in 1973, we were in the midst of the Arab Oil Embargo. At that time, President Richard Nixon issued a Kennedy-esque challenge to America. He said, “Let us set as our national goal, in the spirit of Apollo, with the determination of the Manhattan Project, that by the end of this decade we will have developed the potential to meet our own energy needs without depending on any foreign energy sources.”
If Apollo and the Manhattan project had not gone as well, we would still be peering at the moon wondering what the surface was really like, and we would still be mourning the extra million casualties we suffered to end the war in the Pacific by traditional invasion.
When the OPEC embargo hit, Americans began to recognize how vulnerable our dependence on foreign oil had made us. For the first time, Americans understood our economy – and their ability to have easy access to gasoline – existed at the whim of countries that didn’t like us very much, and didn’t have any guilt about manipulating the American economy. For OPEC, it was all enjoyable.
We did land men on the moon – and brought them back safely to Earth. We did end World War II with two blasts of atomic weapons. But 40 years later, we are twice as dependent on foreign oil as we were when Nixon gave that speech.
Why? Because we never adopted a national energy policy. Instead we adopted a national military policy based principally on protecting the very oil – Middle Eastern OPEC oil – from which Nixon had pledged to release us. Instead of having an energy policy that emphasizes American resources, we pay whatever OPEC demands to buy oil that we also pay to guard.
(Excerpt) Read more at forbes.com ...
No. I’d put up an order of magnitude, at least, higher: Restoration to the adherence of Article 1 Section 8.
OPEC Acknowledges Threat of U.S. Oil
http://www.nationaljournal.com/energy/opec-acknowledges-threat-of-u-s-oil-20131108
November 8, 2013
OPEC has previously downplayed U.S. oil production but now seems ready to acknowledge the potential threat of an American energy boom, The Wall Street Journal reports.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries released its annual World Oil Outlook on Thursday, predicting a surge in petroleum production from both the U.S. and Canada through 2018 that is significantly higher than estimates it released last year.
The report also warned that the U.S. oil boom could cut demand for oil from OPEC nations by 1 million barrels per day within the next five years.
OPEC Expects North American Shale Oil Output to Jump
http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702303763804579183510128371686
Nov. 8, 2013
Two years after dismissing North America’s shale-oil boom as “marginal,” OPEC changed its tune Thursday, acknowledging new extraction technology could sharply cut the need for the group’s own oil.
In its annual World Oil Outlook, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said new oil supply from Canada and the U.S. would reach 4.9 million barrels a day within five years. That is more than double last year’s forecast of 1.7 million barrels a day by 2018.
As a result, global needs for the group’s own crude will be one million barrels a day less by 2018, OPEC said.
OPEC, which groups some of the world’s biggest producers, has been slow to recognize the scale of North America’s oil boom. In the same report in 2011, it said “shale oil should not be viewed as anything more than a source of marginal additions” to global supply.
For some, using the following search and clicking the first link will bring you to the entire article:
https://www.google.com/search?q=OPEC+Expects+North+American+Shale+Oil+Output+to+Jump&oq=OPEC+Expects+North+American+Shale+Oil+Output+to+Jump&aqs=chrome..69i57.559j0j4&sourceid=chrome&espv=210&es_sm=93&ie=UTF-8
Years ago I thought it was better to suck the other guys’ formations dry before using ours.
But the smart people are finding so much energy everywhere these days that maybe we don’t care anymore.
Just like the DeBeers diamond dynasty, the price for hydocarbons will be kept up by artificially induced scarcity of supply. OPEC isn’t the only oil cartel in the world. Oil production in Texas and the Dakotas will grind to a halt if the price of oil drops below the world market price. Same thing with natural gas. That’s assuming that the feds don’t just nationalize the US oil industry in the near future, which is highly likely under the current regime. Just like coal, oil and gas extraction will be effectively banned, except for export to asia, for our chinese comrades.
In the mean time, you better dust off those buggy whip stocks, and invest in a good pair of spurs, and possibly a wagon.
The only "national energy policy" should be simple corporate tax laws featuring reasonably low taxes so that businesses are encouraged to go into the energy sector and extract a bunch o' energy.
There should also be a complete ban on all subsidies for all forms of energy. Each type of energy should compete on price alone.
The only "investment" in energy should be some money provided to businesses and universities for scientific research into future potential energy sources. Any of this type of funding should compete with medical, astronomical, and other types of scientific research.
Thackney,
What are you hearing about Monteray Shale oil?
Since the Cal Governor has now opened this area up, I have heard that this has much bigger potential than the Balkan Shale.
Please enlighten us/me.
The stone age didn't end because we ran out of stones.
Neither did the bronze age or the iron age.
We won't move away from petroleum because we run out of oil.
We will either see price increases to drive us to other fuels, new sources like natgas, or changes in technology to move us away from oil.
Funding our enemies while we starve our economic, only puts them in the driver seat for the next technology as well.
That the formation is going to be difficult and expensive to produce. There are so many fractures that isolate it into lots of individual plays as well as the ability to flow to the individual wells.
I have heard that this has much bigger potential than the Balkan Shale.
I don't think that is true. Be careful you are not reading oil in place and comparing it to technically, economically producible amounts from the Bakken.
http://fuelfix.com/blog/2013/05/30/chevron-ceo-jury-still-out-on-monterey-shale/
And of course the politics there slow everything productive down.
http://fuelfix.com/blog/2013/10/29/california-fracking-study-may-take-18-months-governor-says/
imho the next unheard of oil play will come out of northern arizona and nevada. however, much of the nevada parts of the oil play will be locked up by the feds. But next year we may hear of some significant deposits in northern arizona
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