Replies

Here is the deal. All the polling indicated that any money put into this race would have been wasted. Turns out the poll may have been wrong, but for the most part, money goes where the polls indicate a winnable race and that was not the case here.

Ding, ding, ding, ding, ding. We have a winner! Cuccinelli was down double digits. If McDonnell had been down double digits, would the RNC have thrown $9m into the race? No need to guess what McDonnell's poll numbers were:

Polling Data

Poll	Date	Sample	McDonnell (R)	Deeds (D)	Spread
Final Results	--	--	58.7	41.2	McDonnell +17.5
RCP Average	10/26 - 11/1	--	54.6	41.2	McDonnell +13.4
SurveyUSA	10/30 - 11/1	574 LV	58	40	McDonnell +18
PPP (D)	10/31 - 11/1	1457 LV	56	42	McDonnell +14
Times-Dispatch/MD	10/28 - 10/29	625 LV	53	41	McDonnell +12
Rasmussen Reports	10/27 - 10/27	1000 LV	54	41	McDonnell +13
Daily Kos/R2000	10/26 - 10/28	600 LV	54	44	McDonnell +10
Suffolk University	10/26 - 10/28	400 LV	54	40	McDonnell +14
SurveyUSA	10/25 - 10/26	502 LV	58	41	McDonnell +17
Roanoke College	10/21 - 10/27	569 LV	53	36	McDonnell +17
PPP (D)	10/23 - 10/26	729 LV	55	40	McDonnell +15
Washington Post	10/22 - 10/25	1206 LV	55	44	McDonnell +11
VCU	10/21 - 10/25	625 LV	54	36	McDonnell +18
SurveyUSA	10/17 - 10/19	595 LV	59	40	McDonnell +19
Clarus Research	10/18 - 10/19	605 LV	49	41	McDonnell +8
PPP (D)	10/16 - 10/19	666 LV	52	40	McDonnell +12
Rasmussen Reports	10/12 - 10/12	750 LV	50	43	McDonnell +7
Virginian-Pilot/CNU	10/8 - 10/13	506 LV	45	31	McDonnell +14
Times-Dispatch/MD	10/6 - 10/8	625 LV	48	40	McDonnell +8
Washington Post	10/5 - 10/7	1001 LV	53	44	McDonnell +9
SurveyUSA	10/2 - 10/4	608 LV	54	43	McDonnell +11
Rasmussen Reports	9/29 - 9/29	500 LV	51	42	McDonnell +9
SurveyUSA	9/26 - 9/29	631 LV	55	41	McDonnell +14
PPP (D)	9/25 - 9/28	576 LV	48	43	McDonnell +5
InsiderAdvantage	9/23 - 9/23	602 RV	48	44	McDonnell +4
Washington Post	9/14 - 9/17	1003 LV	51	47	McDonnell +4
Rasmussen Reports	9/16 - 9/16	500 LV	48	46	McDonnell +2
Daily Kos/R2000	9/14 - 9/16	600 LV	50	43	McDonnell +7
Clarus Research	9/10 - 9/14	600 RV	42	37	McDonnell +5
SurveyUSA	9/1 - 9/3	611 LV	54	42	McDonnell +12
Rasmussen Reports	9/1 - 9/1	500 LV	51	42	McDonnell +9
PPP (D)	8/28 - 8/31	596 LV	49	42	McDonnell +7
Washington Post	8/11 - 8/14	LV	54	39	McDonnell +15
Rasmussen Reports	8/10 - 8/10	500 LV	49	41	McDonnell +8
Daily Kos/R2000	8/3 - 8/5	600 LV	51	43	McDonnell +8
PPP (D)	7/31 - 8/3	579 LV	51	37	McDonnell +14
SurveyUSA	7/27 - 7/28	526 LV	55	40	McDonnell +15
Rasmussen Reports	7/14 - 7/14	500 LV	44	41	McDonnell +3
PPP (D)	6/30 - 7/2	617 LV	49	43	McDonnell +6
Daily Kos/R2000	6/15 - 6/17	600 LV	45	44	McDonnell +1
Rasmussen	6/10 - 6/10	500 LV	41	47	Deeds +6
SurveyUSA	6/5 - 6/7	1685 RV	47	43	McDonnell +4
Daily Kos/R2000	6/1 - 6/3	600 LV	46	34	McDonnell +12
SurveyUSA	5/31 - 6/2	1701 RV	44	43	McDonnell +1
Daily Kos/R2000	5/18 - 5/20	600 LV	45	32	McDonnell +13
SurveyUSA	5/17 - 5/19	1692 RV	46	40	McDonnell +6
SurveyUSA	4/25 - 4/27	1396 RV	44	39	McDonnell +5
Rasmussen Reports	4/15 - 4/15	500 LV	45	30	McDonnell +15
Daily Kos/R2000	4/6 - 4/8	600 LV	38	31	McDonnell +7
Rasmussen Reports	2/4 - 2/4	500 LV	39	30	McDonnell +9
Rasmussen Reports	12/4 - 12/4	500 LV	39	39	Tie

(After October 18 partisan affiliated polls will not be added to Election 2009 RCP Poll Averages.)