If you are looking for good news based on 2012 comparison
McAuliffe is dramatically underperforming Obama in the five largest Virginia Counties.
Both candidates are underperforming— because of Sarvis.
But it does appear that Sarvis has damaged McAuliffe more than Cuccinelli.
Exactly. And the Sarvis effect was so important Paul came over to visit.
Quick look at the Huffington Post interactive map implies, based on outstanding precincts, that McAuliffe can pick up about 50,000 votes in the blue counties. That doesn’t guarantee anything, as the distribution of outstanding precincts may not mirror the rest of the counties in question.
That may look bad for Cuccinelli as he only leads by 41,000 votes. But the above does NOT take into account outstanding precincts in red counties. Looking at those counties I’d estimate a gain for Cuccinelli in remaining precincts of 15,000 votes.
That nets out to a 35,000 vote gain for McAuliffe, who trails by 41,000, with a very large variance. So I’d say it’s too close to call. Anyone who says it’s definitely one or the other winning, without specific knowledge such as “the remaining precincts in Fairfax are much more red/blue than the county overall” is blowing smoke.
Another interesting fact...if the VA governor’s race was a true referendum on Obamacare, then Terry McAwful is in trouble. Fox exit polling says opponents of Obamacare went for Cuccinelli by a 80-11% margin.