If I could predict where oil/gas prices were going to move to, I would not have to work for a living. Understanding how the oil industry works is far different than predicting everything that effects the price of oil, like politics, wars and new technology.
Are the Saudis about to crash oil prices just to make life interesting for fracking operations?
I do not believe they have that ability. They are spending more and more dollars themselves for enhanced oil recovery projects. They are no longer doing simple drilling themselves.
If true, there will come a day when their domestic gasoline (sold at $0.45 per gallon) subsidies will cost them real money instead of representing opportunity cost.