A long time.
Check the weather at that time.
What time? They don't know the week this started let alone the day and time.
I still have a hard time believing the lightning. But I suspect there is more info that what we have read for them to put that out a possibility. Melting of steel? solidified soil?
Lightening would be on or near the bottom of the list IMO.
There may have been a small leak that lightening opened up, but I doubt it.
I also think with ID corrosion pitting alone there would be a bigger hole after 20,000 barrels.