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“Don’t worry about the Chinese nuking the US. You don’t nuke your own property.”

I agree with you. The Chinese have a long term view of the world and work patiently over decades to achieve their objectives. They likely view the US as a future source of abundant raw materials as well as land for colonization.

A likely scenario is as follows within the next two decades. China continues to develop its domestic economy. An expanding middle class allows it to convert from a primarily export driven economy to an economy built on domestic consumption and supporting a large military establishment (not unlike the US economy of the second half of the 20th Century). At a point in time, the Chinese client North Korea will launch one or more EMP devices into polar orbit. When directed by the Chinese government, these devices will be exploded over the United States mainland effectively destroying the power grid and almost all electrical devices on which our modern economy is based. Transportation systems will immediately grind to a halt, electronic money will be unusable, commerce will end, and within days a society without food will begin to starve and fall into anarchy. Within a year 2/3 or more of the population will be dead. Should any of the US military outside the affected areas mount a counterattack it will be against North Korea and not China. Of course that assumes military officers would act without orders and could even identify from where the EMP attack came.

With the surviving US population in chaos and starving, the Chinese will be will positioned to occupy the mainland. They have the surplus population to send. They can bring in teams of technicians to restart the grid in the areas they occupy. Their colonists can take over the houses and other buildings. The natural resources (mines, oil, etc) will be free for the taking.

The absence of a missile defense system, early warning visibility from the south, and zero efforts to harden the electric grid and electrical equipment make us extremely vulnerable to a “one shot” attack from a rogue state such as North Korea or Iran. There is essentially no downside for China or Russia to orchestrate such an attack at the time of their choosing.