The Next Budget Battle (show conservative stripes and win)

National Review ^ | October 23, 2013 | Michael Tanner

[Cincinatus' Wife]

The fight over the government shutdown may have come to an ignominious end, but the reprieve from Washington budgetary politics will be short-lived. The latest continuing resolution will expire on January 15, while we will hit our debt ceiling again on February 7. In the meantime, a budget conference committee, headed by Representative Paul Ryan (R., Wis.) and Senator Patty Murray (D., Wash.), is supposed to reach an agreement by December 13.

While the shutdown fight was so traumatic that many Republicans may prefer that the budget debate simply go away, these negotiations are as crucial as ever.

Yes, a combination of increased revenue and slower spending (mostly a result of the sequester) means that the budget deficit has fallen to $642 billion in 2013, compared with a high of $1.4 trillion in 2009. Of course, that just means that our debt is not growing as fast as it was before; it’s still growing.

More important, lower deficits are a temporary phenomenon. According to the Congressional Budget Office, deficits will start increasing again in 2016. By 2023, they will be back up to almost $900 billion, and our gross federal debt will have risen to $25.23 trillion.

Republicans may be divided and demoralized right now, but they cannot afford to throw in the budgetary towel. As the debate moves forward, Republicans must hold the line in several key areas.

Save the sequester: The Democrats’ reverence for “settled law” evaporates when it comes to the sequester, a law duly passed by bipartisan majorities in both houses of Congress and signed by the president. Repealing the sequester’s mandated spending cuts is likely to be the Democrats’ No. 1 priority in budget negotiations. Already, Obama has promised to “keep fighting to get rid of” the law, saying it’s “hurting our military and our economy.”

Moreover, Democrats may find allies in this fight among Republican defense hawks, who object to cuts in military spending. John McCain, for example, has said that “some of us Republicans and Democrats are meeting about” undoing the law, “particularly those who are deeply concerned about the effect on defense.”

Some Republicans have other priorities: Even Paul Ryan has suggested that he might be willing to trade sequester changes for promises of future entitlement cuts.

We should be clear: The sequester hasn’t actually cut spending. Even if we preserve it, spending in 2023 will still be higher than it is today. But it has reduced spending growth well below previously projected baselines. In fact, without the sequester, discretionary spending will be $87 billion higher in 2023 than it’s projected to be with the law still in effect. The sequester will ultimately save taxpayers some $1.1 trillion over ten years, through lower discretionary spending and reduced interest payments. By slowing the growth of spending to a rate that’s below the growth of the economy and revenues, the sequester is helping to shrink both the deficit and the size of government as a share of GDP.

Across-the-board cuts may not be the most elegant method of budgeting — and some greater interagency budget flexibility may be desirable — but reversing or weakening the sequester will open the floodgates to much more federal spending. Republicans must fight to preserve it.

Hold the line on taxes: Already the president is back to talking about the need to include additional revenues in any budget agreement, a so-called balanced deal that, for instance, “closes corporate tax loopholes that don’t help create jobs.”

It should be recalled that the president got a ten-year, $617 billion tax increase as part of last January’s fiscal-cliff deal and that Obamacare includes $1.2 trillion in new taxes over the next ten years. That’s a total of $1.8 trillion in taxes he’s already won.

In fact, the Congressional Budget Office estimates that revenue will reach 18.6 percent of GDP by 2015, the highest level since 2001 and slightly above the post-war average. Washington has a spending problem, not a revenue problem.

Even that bastion of establishment liberalism the Washington Post opposes tax hikes as part of this deal, editorializing:

The temptation for Democrats, as always, will be to insist on higher revenues — a non-starter with the GOP — in exchange for entitlement reform. We hope they won’t. More tax money is part of the long-term fiscal fix. At the moment, however, what’s vital is fixing spending priorities. Even over the long run, insufficient revenue is not the problem it was before the “fiscal cliff” deal that increased taxes on the well-to-do.

If Republicans end up to the left of the Post, something is terribly wrong.

Start reforming entitlements: The driving force behind future deficits and debt is not federal funding of Planned Parenthood, foreign aid, or the cost of Obamaphones but the skyrocketing growth in entitlement spending, notably Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security. (Obamacare too, but that fight will have to wait for another day.) In fact, all domestic discretionary spending – everything from the Department of Education to the Department of Commerce, the FBI to the FDA — will account for just 24 percent of federal spending by 2023, the lowest share since 1962. On the other hand, entitlements will consume roughly 54 percent of the federal budget.

Social Security’s unfunded liabilities top $23 trillion. Medicare is in even worse shape: Under the most optimistic scenarios, it faces almost $43 trillion in future red ink. If more pessimistic forecasts prove accurate, those unfunded liabilities top $88 trillion.

President Obama has hinted he’s willing to accept at least some entitlement reform as part of a larger deal. In his post-shutdown speech, for example, he admitted, “The challenge that we have right now [is] the long-term obligations that we have around things like Medicare and Social Security. We want to make sure those are there for future generations.”

Rather than get drawn into divisive battles over pet spending causes, Republicans need to go big, putting the president to the test and demanding fundamental entitlement reform.

The fight over Obamacare and the government shutdown was just one battle. Republicans lost that one. But the long war over the size, scope, and cost of government goes on. The next battle is under way.

And this one is winnable.

— Michael Tanner is a senior fellow at the Cato Institute and the author of Leviathan on the Right: How Big-Government Conservatism Brought Down the Republican Revolution.

[sickoflibs]

RE :”Start reforming entitlements: The driving force behind future deficits and debt is not federal funding of Planned Parenthood, foreign aid, or the cost of Obamaphones but the skyrocketing growth in entitlement spending, notably Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security. (Obamacare too, but that fight will have to wait for another day.) In fact, all domestic discretionary spending – everything from the Department of Education to the Department of Commerce, the FBI to the FDA — will account for just 24 percent of federal spending by 2023, the lowest share since 1962. On the other hand, entitlements will consume roughly 54 percent of the federal budget. “

Telling Republicans that the country can afford Planned Parenthood, foreign aid, or the cost of Obamaphones but not our (distant future only) social security and medicare is not going to go well, and the Dems will oppose it too.

Notice the author seems to claim that medicare is OK right now.

[Cincinatus' Wife]

Obamacare for Kookistan First "..........The President should have been well aware that his on-line healthcare program was not ready for the public’s use. Tested on October 1 for how it would work when hundreds of thousands of people tried to use it later in the month, it locked up after about 2,000 tries. The President then had plenty of time to avoid this week’s embarrassment. His party could have cut a deal with the Tea Party and the other conservatives and delayed the rollout. The Democrats would have looked magnanimous but they sought something else. Now they look ignominious.

President Obama’s pratfall with healthcare put me in mind of a fundamental difference between conservatives and a man of the left. The conservative is wary about forcing his policy upon a divided nation. The man of the left plunges forward. President Ronald Reagan was dead set against abortion but he recognized that the country was pretty much divided on abortion. It would be better if he settled with limiting abortion where he could and speaking out against it so as to persuade rather than to bully. President Obama had a fleeting majority in both houses of Congress on an issue that about equally divided the nation. He forced it into law. Since then the majority of the American people have increased their opposition to Obamacare. Their numbers are growing. Obama’s response is to charge ahead, even when Obamacare encounters grave and grave difficulties......"

[sickoflibs]

RE :”Since then the majority of the American people have increased their opposition to Obamacare. Their numbers are growing. Obama’s response is to charge ahead, even when Obamacare encounters grave and grave difficulties......”

That will hopefully happen in the next few months but right now post shutdown I have seen polls with GOP congressional approval swing from low 20s to even below 10%.
Posts here complaining about the media taking Obama’s side are a confirmation that these are true.

Its going to take time for the negative coverage of Obamacare to have the needed effect.

[Lurkina.n.Learnin]

“In fact, all domestic discretionary spending – everything from the Department of Education to the Department of Commerce, the FBI to the FDA — will account for just 24 percent of federal spending by 2023, the lowest share since 1962.”

B.S. The discretionary spending is not down it’s just that non-discretionary has grown at a faster pace. So what do they do, start a brand spankity new entitlement program called Obamacare. If you’re making $25000 a year and spending $35000 you are in trouble. Add a whole bunch of zeros and you are congress. Obama and congress are those people that rush to the post office hoping there is a new credit card offer that they can fill out to get a new card that they can max out making the minimum payment and continue the spending spree.

[PubliusMM]

John McCain, for example, has said that “some of us Republicans and Democrats are meeting about” undoing the law, “particularly those who are deeply concerned about the effect on defense.” There. Fixed.

[Hostage]

With Ryan in charge of reaching an agreement you can kiss the GOP goodbye.

[Cincinatus' Wife]

I’ve looked over the methodology of these polls.

They do not pass the “to be believed” test.

[sickoflibs]

RE :”I’ve looked over the methodology of these polls. They do not pass the “to be believed” test. ”

I recall the same was said about all those polls showing Romney would lose the 2012 election.

Posts like these below whining about the biased media in that fight indicate that both the author, poster and commentators believe what those polls indicate. And you got both Dems and Republicans mad at the GOP at the same time, that will give you 10 to 20%

The Shutdown that Ruined Christmas? Townhall.com ^ | October 23, 2013 | Brent Bozell

Winners dont need excuses like this nor do they fight with one another. They stay unified and boast like Dems are doing now.

There is time before 2014 election, but any elections this year will be painful.

[SkyPilot]

Save the Sequester......We should be clear: The sequester hasn’t actually cut spending.

What a bunch of horse manure. It cut spending in real dollars for Defense, which must "pay for" the majority of Sequester cuts. The Pentagon budget has much less to spend on Operations, Maintenance, Research, and Procurement that in earlier years to due increases in other spending, and on top of that, Obama cut the Pentagon by $487 Billion starting in 2009 and that was before the $600 Billion in Sequester cuts.

Fox: Stop Pretending Enforced Cuts Won't Be Harmful

We have the Army Chief of Staff revealing just the day before yesterday that he only has 2 ready combat brigades.

Army chief: Just 2 brigades combat-ready

Air Force combat squadrons have gone non-mission ready, and they still have not recoverd.

Reduced Flying Hours Forces USAF To Ground 17 Combat Air Squadrons

The cuts in January threaten to mothball the ENTIRE KC-10 and A-10 fleets, and that is just the grim beginning.

USAF Weighs Scrapping KC-10, A-10 Fleets

Over 3,400 DoD doctors, nurses, and medical professionals that care for our military have quit in disgust after furloughs, pay freezes, lack of money, and shoddy treatment.

Military civilian medical workers quit after furloughs

Meanwhile, the real cause of our debt and deficts (Entitlements) have been exempt from Sequestration and cuts.

The pencil neck geeks who write about how "great" Sequestration is ignore simple and plain facts. They practice sophistry and the art of propaganda.

The GOP has chosen to abandon the military. The will pay a politcal price for this. They have taken advantage of the military time, and time again. They are going to be shocked when they realize that this once loyal base has left them, just as they were abandoned by the GOP.

Military no less conservative, but less Republican, survey finds

[Cincinatus' Wife]

They’re going to have to hold the line.

This is a battle for the country.

It won’t help our country and our military to lose this battle on the budget because it will allow our economy to collapse from debt.

[SkyPilot]

They’re going to have to hold the line.

What "line" are they holding?

The Sequester does nothing to address our exploding Entitlements (both earned and unearned).

This is a battle for the country.

It is, but the GOP is selling the military down the river for very short term gain. All the Sequester does is cause great harm to national defense, but does nothing to stop the real bleeding. By next year, the growth in Entitlements from 2012 will have eclipsed all supposed "gains" by gutting the military during the same time period.

It won’t help our country and our military to lose this battle on the budget because it will allow our economy to collapse from debt. We are on the verge of collapse, and it is because of Entitlements.

In fact, the cuts to Defense spending also causing harm to the same economy we are trying to save. Not all cuts to "spending" translate to equal boosts to savings or the economy. If you cut welfare spending, you may get less circulation of dollars in the drug trade. If you eliminate 20,000 Aerospace, research, and high tech jobs, that reverberates to the productive centers of our economy in much more destructive ways.

You must understand this.

Death by Sequestration

I am not a genius nor a prophet - but as Jeff Goldblum said in the movie Jurassic Park, I hate being right all the time.

I was correct last winter when I posted about the real harm that was about to done to our national defense and economy because of Sequestration. Many posters on this board amazed me with their red faced rhetoric. The Joint Chiefs were "liars!" Any reform to Entitlements was "MY MONEY!"

When I said in September that the feckless hope that we could "de-fund ObamaCare" was a pipe dream because we do not control the Senate or the White House, I was called "a dick" on this forum and much worse.

Now, here we are, and the GOP is in a much worse position after that loss (and let's be honest, the GOP got its clock cleaned by the shutdown debacle).

Now, the GOP is about to make another big mistake: sell out the military once again and do nothing about Entitlements.

[Cincinatus' Wife]

They have a weapon the Left fears but it’s only useful if the GOP doesn’t blink and holds it over their heads.

[I do not like seeing the military squeezed like this. Not one bit.]

Time to play hardball.

[Cincinatus' Wife]

Source

[Lancey Howard]

Paul Ryan has suggested that he might be willing to trade sequester changes for promises of future entitlement cuts.

NOBODY is that stupid.
If Ryan and the Republicans do this they should be tarred and feathered and thrown in the Mariana Trench.

[TurboZamboni]

I’ll gladly pay you Tuesday for a hamburger today.

[GeronL]

Is this where we are supposed to get all worked up thinking the GOP will finally, finally, finally do the right thing after all??

I’m not playing that game any more

[TurboZamboni]

Resist we not so much