There are lots of factors that went into this prediction, such as increased urbanization, more efficient urban planning...
... and Agenda 21 and ICLEI.
.........
all fair criticisms except that Shell is an oil company. what would their interests be in predicting less oil consumption.
All oil companies are energy companies. Exxon dabbled in solar cell production, for instance. They want to get their hat in the ring for anything new, so that they won’t be blindsided by disruptive technology. At their scale, they can afford to do this.
All the more reason to be saying WTF to Shell.
The article states the factors they used, and I’m pointing not at oil reserves, gas/solar/whatever economies... but at their stated factors of “increased urbanization” and “efficient urban planning”.
For whatever reason, seems to me Shell is somehow inclined to factor in or do the bidding of Agenda-21/ICLEI.