As oil prices go up beyond a certain point ($200/bbl), coal to gasoline plants will become a riskless investment.
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I think we are seeing the top of the oil market. Supply is rising pretty sharply in north america and iraq. and the gulf states except Iran are raising production.
that’s pretty much meeting rising demand from asia. demand in the USA is falling pretty steadily.
I believe the cost of marginal oil production (fracking, offshore drilling) is around $80/bbl. When you factor in risk (finding cost-effective wells, country-specific political wrangling) $100 seems like the right price. Even fracking won't be forever. They will run out just as the massive oil wells of the past petered out. Heck, OPEC oil wells aren't as productive as they used to be, and domestic demand is skyrocketing, partly because of uneconomic subsidies that fix prices at a fraction of world levels. Gasoline in Saudi Arabia is $0.48 a gallon. They'd be better off setting the prices at market levels and giving everyone a bigger stipend. But there are probably entrenched interests that would be harmed by it. And so many OPEC producers over-consume. Saudi Arabia doesn't even have the biggest gasoline subsidies - Venezuela, which charges $0.18 a gallon, has that honor, despite producing expensive to refine heavy crude oil.