Decisions on big-cap items like pipelines need to be made based on a best estimate of demand a decade or so out Okay, you want to change to a different topic? Can you show me a source with a good track record of being correct in demand a decade in advance?
Canadian oil sands production is forecast to grow from 1.8 million barrels per day in 2012 to 5.2 million barrels per day in 2030
Thirty year predictions are interesting games of "what if". In that time frame we might lose production rates or double them. To many variables like politics and new technologies along with alternative source to even pretend it is a fixed number.
I'm not sure what that has to do with the US not affecting oil prices but Russia will.
Thanks for the chart. The EIA certainly covers all the bases, just like any government agency.
You can bet that every oil sands participant committing to a new project is relying on a forecast that goes out well beyond the term of project financing. That is where CAPP gets their numbers on pp. 5-7 and 36 & 37 of their forecast.
The Alberta oil sands are but one example of forecast production increases. They are also the most accessible. We won't find that kind of transparency from Russia, for example.
My observation about lack of price impact from U.S. production was intended to throw cold water on the boosterism that promises low gas prices at the pump. I don't think we'll see that, even if the Feds open up offshore, Federal lands and ANWR to drilling. The benefit to the U.S. will be in jobs and prosperity from developing our own resources, rather than paying others for theirs.