Future incremental (increased) production, the delta, of U.S. supply and demand will be small, relative to increases in supply from countries like Russia and increases in demand from Asia. As such, increases in U.S. production will not have a significant impact on world oil prices. That should be a safe statement, without getting into a massive statistical analysis, much of it based on highly controversial data. My view is that the reason the Saudis are concerned the U.S. might become self-sufficient is more because they fear a gradual weakening the U.S. security umbrella as Persian Gulf oil becomes less important to the U.S.
You have a valid point that proven reserves of oil in bitumen form are not militarily significant, unless they are being produced. It's not just a matter of drilling some development wells. I think that military concerns are based on a remote possibility.
Future incremental (increased) production, the delta, of U.S. supply and demand will be small, relative to increases in supply from countries like Russia I do not believe that is true. For 2013 Russia production growth is expected to rather small compared to the US. In 2014 they are expected to fall in production rate while the US will have significant production growth.
As such, increases in U.S. production will not have a significant impact on world oil prices.
The US is having the largest production increases in the world.