Exactly.
The point I’m trying to make is that the weather models here aren’t anywhere nearly as advanced as they are in other states. One of the reasons why the winds are so high in the WY/SD/ND area is because we get these HUGE changes of barometric pressure as fronts slide across us - and sometimes the weather-guessers can tell us that we’re going to get winds of 70MPH, and sometimes they can’t. The failure in models isn’t just for snow - it’s for everything we go through.
I’ve nearly had the windows torn off the house (I’d like to tell people right now, for the record - do NOT buy or build a house with casement windows in these areas) when the sky was clear blue overhead. Nothing but stars visible in the middle of a nice summer’s night.
What happened to cause the wind? Easy - only in hindsight. A very large t-storm up in Montana died. The huge convection build in the storm cells dies a rapid death by about 2200 in the evening, and all that previously heated air lofted up to 50K feet has now cooled and comes falling back down towards the ground. People for about 100 miles around get this huge 10-minute windstorm as this huge body of air literally falls out of the sky.
Does NOAA have any way to predict this? Heck no. We call them “Wyoming WTF?! winds.” They’re the reason why you never leave doors and windows open in the shop or outbuildings once you take your boots off for the evening.
As for AGW: the AGW models have little to no predictive skill. They can’t even hind-cast what we’ve observed well, much less make forecasts into the future with high confidence. I’ve noticed that IPCC keeps pulling down their expected temperature rise with every report - which means that they’re grudgingly admitting that there’s little need to panic and run in circles like our hair was on fire or something.