Hmmm, I think I'll go have some grapes. I wonder where they're from.
//The folks didn’t believe the forecasters and models? Why not?
Isn’t it their business to forecast with reliable models? //
The models aren’t that reliable. The models said that the central part of the state would get 1 foot of snow, didn’t happen, they just got rain and the ‘models’ failed on even being close to the amount of rain. Sometimes the storm changes, more often is isn’t even close to what they are predicting.
Running joke here is every day is a 20% chance of moisture - that is the model and this year we had a drought most of the year.
So, based on experience, nah a lot of people don’t trust the models.
Because the model outputs were so wildly at variance with historical experience for that time of the year, as well as how rapidly the models were changing their results from inputs.
Computer models aren’t fool-proof. There’s LOTS of times when the meteorologists make their own judgements of what is valid. Matter of fact, most of your local WX prediction is an amalgamation of several computer model’s outputs, and sometimes the forecasters look at the models and say “OK, we have four models in agreement and one which is wildly at variance - toss the last one.” And that’s what they do. They just toss the results, because it is coming up with something so wildly out of the past experiences for that region.
Sometimes, that one wild model is the one with the predictive skill. Often, it isn’t.
Weather prediction is alot like rolling dice.
There are variables that the models cannot take into account.
So the prediction often does not equal the outcome.
Several snowstorms here in New York occurred with only a 12 to 23% chance of snow.