I would expect an increase similar to that when Ultra-Low Sulfur Diesel went into effect, maybe 50¢.
How much will it reduce refinery output?
That depends how many older, less up-to-date refineries decide to spend the millions of dollars to make the changes.
Then that will probably be the rub. Our number of refineries are so low that a few going out of business (due to more of Obama's regulations) will make a major difference.
That’s the key to all this.
Smaller, older plants will likely close.