I think the oil they pull out of the various oil fields in the permian basin will be a lot more than even the most optimistic views today.
I suspect you’re right.
I hope you are right.
That could well be. USGS estimates tend to be conservative, simply because scientific credibility is at stake and putting an overly optimistic estimate would hurt that.
Consider, though the USGS estimates of the Bakken, and later the Bakken/Three Forks reserves have doubled more than once and will likely increase even more as time goes by.
For the Williston Basin (where the Bakken Formation is found), though, this is just a couple of fifteen known oil bearing formations (not to mention the Winnipeg and Deadwood gas sands). Not all are as amenable to large scale horizontal drilling (production is more localized), but there is a lot more oil yet to be produced.