I expect Ted Cruz and most of those newly elected from the The Tea Party (excepting a few who have gone over to the dark side) to retain their integrity and I therefore expect a riff in the Republican Party. Most of this is playing out in the context of defunding Obamacare while passing a continuing resolution in the House that funds the rest of the government. Establishment Republicans believe that this plays into the hands of Obama and will probably give him the election in 2014. No doubt Obama will claim that they Republican shut down the government and stole grandma Social Security check. I think the establishment Republicans secretly believe that to win the 2014 election, that is to hold the House and perhaps take the Senate, is a prize worth the passive acceptance of Obamacare.
Conservatives believe to the contrary. First, they believe that 2012 was lost because the conservative base stayed home because of the fecklessness of the Republican Congress in the House and the lackluster campaign of Mitt Romney. Their thinking is that if the Republicans continue to passively accept Obamacare while cynically camouflaging their passively with pointless bills to repeal, the conservative base will turn with a vengeance against them. This time the base will not just sit on its hands but will cause a real rupture in the party. We have already seen the first evidence of this with the aggressive primaries being run by the tea party against Rino Republican senators. It is likely that in many key elections involving Rinos who survive tea party challenges in the primaries, those Rinos will find themselves confronting not just the Democrat but a third-party Tea Party challenger.
A third-party challenge to Republican candidates almost certainly gives the win to the Democrat. If this occurs in multiple challenges it will demonstrate the degree and intensity of dissatisfaction of the conservative base with the Republican establishment. If tea party challengers prevail either in primaries or alternatively succeed in un-horsing Republican incumbents by fielding third-party candidates, the tea party will have the bit in its teeth and the rupture from the Republican Party might well become complete and irreparable. No one can foresee the electoral implications of such an event.
Either the Republican Party will struggle on as the number two party but be so wounded that it will cease to be a competitive political party in America, or, a third-party, The Tea Party, will emerge as a viable party sharing a reduced portion of the electorate with the Republicans, or, the Republicans will go the way of the Whigs and The Tea Party will emerge to replace the Republicans.
But defunding Obamacare is not the only cloud in Boehner's sky. Amnesty is a lose-lose for Republicans but it appears that Boehner will sell the Republican base out and cynically permit a good sounding bill to go to conference where it will be "transformed" by the Senate and, with House Democrats and a few Rinos, find a majority for passage in the House. Thus, we will have amnesty but the base will not be deceived. If this scenario plays out as a second slap in the face of conservatives, it will be very difficult to hold the party together.
If I am correct in my belief that Ted Cruz and the maverick Republicans in the house will retain their integrity, Speaker Boehner must reckon with the scenario that I've just described. A prudent man would conclude that the greater risks lie with continuing his policy of betraying the base while pretending to be their champion. That deception has been exposed and will no longer work. Boehner must decide wherein lie the greater and the lesser risks. His dithering has left it with few positive options, he must choose the least dangerous risk.
I believe that the greater risks for Boehner and the establishment Republicans are to continue patronizing and betraying the Republican base. If they pass a continuing resolution which funds the government except for Obamacare, and the Democrats shut down the government, they are in a debate which leaves them not without assets and they will be in a position which they can take to the country. If on the other hand they passively acquiesce, they will very likely sheer the party asunder and they will likely lose the election for which they are presently selling their souls.
