There's Almost No Chance Russia's Plan for Syria's Chemical Weapons Will Work

Foreign Policy ^ | 09/11/2013 | Yochi Dreazen

[SeekAndFind]

Russia's proposal for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to place his chemical weapons under international supervision and then destroy them is quickly gaining steam. Assad's government accepted the plan this morning.

A few hours later, President Obama, British Prime Minister David Cameron and French President Francois Hollande announced that they'd seriously explore the proposal. It already has the backing of United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki-moon and a growing number of influential lawmakers from both parties. There's just one problem: the plan would be nearly impossible to actually carry out.

Experts in chemical weapons disposal point to a host of challenges. Taking control of Assad's enormous stores of the munitions would be difficult to do in the midst of a brutal civil war. Dozens of new facilities for destroying the weapons would have to be built from scratch or brought into the country from the U.S., and completing the job would potentially take a decade or more. The work itself would need to be done by specially-trained military personnel or contractors. Guess which country has most of those troops and civilian experts? If you said the U.S., you'd be right.

"This isn't simply burning the leaves in your backyard," said Mike Kuhlman, the chief scientist for national security at Battelle, a company that has been involved in chemical weapons disposal work at several sites in the U.S. "It's not something you do overnight, it's not easy, and it's not cheap."

The decades-long U.S. push to eliminate its own chemical weapons stockpiles illustrates the tough road ahead if Washington and Damascus come to a deal. The Army organization responsible for destroying America's massive quantities of munitions says the effort will take two years longer than initially planned and cost $2 billion more than its last estimate.

[Dark Knight]

In the speech, Obama said that Syria, “Violated International Treaty” by using Chemical Weapons.<<

I believe the administration’s line has been international “norms”, and then talk about everyone else being a party to a treaty. Makes you wonder if he’s gonna start rethinking that whole “Gay Marriage” norm thing.

BTW
It’s none of government’s business who you marry. It’s a religious rite, and between you, your partner(s) and God.

DK

[Jim Robinson]

It’s already worked. Obama’s had his clock cleaned. But now, of course, he’s likely to be more of a danger to America than ever before (unless the congress puts him in his place).

[Straight Vermonter]

If it is so difficult how did Saddam manage it and keep it a secret?

[Dark Knight]

Bribery to the outside world and terror within his country. We did find stocks of various prohibited material, including binary nerve gas shells, specifically used as a really bad IED, it fizzled. It was filled with WMD gas in a regular looking artillery shell. But of course no matter what they found, the media always said it did not count.

DK

[SunkenCiv]

Thanks SeekAndFind.

Experts in chemical weapons disposal point to a host of challenges. Taking control of Assad's enormous stores of the munitions would be difficult to do in the midst of a brutal civil war. Dozens of new facilities for destroying the weapons would have to be built from scratch or brought into the country from the U.S., and completing the job would potentially take a decade or more. The work itself would need to be done by specially-trained military personnel or contractors. Guess which country has most of those troops and civilian experts? If you said the U.S., you'd be right. "This isn't simply burning the leaves in your backyard," said Mike Kuhlman, the chief scientist for national security at Battelle, a company that has been involved in chemical weapons disposal work at several sites in the U.S. "It's not something you do overnight, it's not easy, and it's not cheap."