Posted on 09/07/2013 12:49:49 AM PDT by naturalman1975
We have had Live Threads here at Freerepublic for the count for the last three Australian Federal elections - in 2004 which ended in conservative victory, then again in 2007 which ended in defeat for the conservatives and a Labor government, and then again in 2010 which gave us a hung Parliament, where Labor continued governing with the support of the Greens and independents. This is the live thread for 2013 - polls close and the count begins in about 10 minutes.
Polls and exit polls indicate a victory for the conservative coalition under Tony Abbott is highly likely.
A primer for those trying to understand the Australian election.
First of all, the parties. There are two 'sides' that are really important.
We have Labor - the Australian Labor Party. These are the socialists who have held government since 2007 first of all under Prime Minister Kevin Rudd, then under Prime Minister Julia Gillard, and now once again under Prime Minister Kevin Rudd. These are the people that most Freepers would not want to see re-elected. They will typically be referred to as the ALP or as Labor.
On the other side we have a coalition (commonly referred to as 'The Coalition' as it has existed for a very long time now - since 1922) of conservative parties - primarily the Liberals (Liberal Party of Australia) and the Nationals (National Party of Australia), but also including the Liberal National Party of Queensland (where the two have merged) and the Country Liberal Party of the Northern Territory (result of an earlier merger back when the Nationals were the Country Party). The Liberal Party is the largest and its leader, Tony Abbott is the Leader of the Opposition. He was a Minister in the last coalition government (1996-2007) under Prime Minister John Howard. If the election goes the way we hope, he will become the next Prime Minister of Australia following this election. You may see this group referred to as the Coalition, or by any of the party names or initials - LP, NP, LNP, etc. From the perspective of most conservatives, a vote for the Liberals is as good as a vote for the Nationals and vice versa - they only rarely run against each other.
Australia's political system is largely based on that of the United Kingdom, with some elements adopted from the system of the United States. We have a Parliament with two Houses - a House of Representatives and a Senate - that are roughly similar to the US Congress, with the House of Representatives consisting of Members elected to represent local constituencies roughly based on equal population, while the Senate has an equal number of Senators representing each state (two 'Territories' of Australia also have a smaller number of Senators). What matters today is the election of the House of Representatives - the Senate is important, but it doesn't determine who holds government and the complicated voting system used there means we won't know its make up for some time.
So let's look at the House of Representatives.
There are 150 seats in the House of Representatives. To win government in your own right, a party (or coalition) needs 76 seats. So as the count progresses, that's the number we are looking for - 76 confirmed seats out of 150. Americans may find it helpful to consider this as somewhat equivalent to getting 270 Electoral College votes in your system - the magic number where you have won. Getting more is nice, but that's the bottom line.
So when people post counts, look for a 76 minimum in the Coalition grouping or a combined total of 76 in the Liberal/National/Liberal National/Country Liberal columns (more often you will see the former).
There are a host of minor parties - some of which are potentially relevant. First of all, there are the Greens. The Greens currently have one Member of Parliament, and they could well retain that - they will support Labor if it comes down to it, their support is part of the reason we've had a Labor government for the last three years (nobody got a majority last time, and the Greens helped Labor across the line). There are also a number of minor parties which currently do not have any seats (except on a technicality - I will get to that in a moment) but where it is possible (though not necessarily at all likely) they could win some today and become relevant. These are:
The tecnhicality I just mentioned, Katter's Australian Party - lead by Bob Katter. Katter was elected to Parliament in 1993 as a National, but turned independent in 2001, and has now started his own party. He is quite likely to be returned, and it's not impossible some of his other people might be elected. If necessary, KAP members would almost certainly support the Coalition - so if the election is close (much closer than is expected), KAP can provisionally be counted in our numbers as well - but they would certainly want commitments to some policies.
Palmer United Party - a brand new party, started by Clive Palmer, an extremely wealthy Australian miner who is currently planning on building both a replica of the Titanic and his own version of Jurassic Park (full of animatronic dinosaurs). He used to be a member of the Nationals and then the Liberal Nationals, but had enough disagreements with them to start his own party. Again, it's not impossible (though it is unlikely) they could become relevant today - but again, if it came down to it, the PUP would almost certainly support the coalition.
Family First - a generally conservative party (except on a few welfare and 'humanitarian' issues) with a strong Christian base. They've held representation in our Senate before, but never in the lower house (which is what I've been talking about here). It isn't impossible they could, but again is unlikely - but again, in a close election, they would probably support the coalition.
There are lots of really minor parties, none of which are likely to have any hope of being relevant at all. In the unlikely event they become relevant during the count, I'll explain them then. There could also be some relevant independents.
Short version - we want 76+ votes for the Liberal/National coalition. If we come in just under than number things get a bit more complicated, but may be salvageable.
Out of those, I’d probably go with Nine, but they should all be adequate.
I’m finding this rather anti-climactic. I’m ecstatic, but there’s not much suspense.
Seat of Griffith (the Prime Ministers own seat) - he looks like he has held it.
NSW and QLD look like they aren’t the bloodbath for Labor that were expected.
Victoria on the other hand...
I’ll take anything above 76 myself, but I was hoping Rudd would lose Griffith.
It seems Labor is making the same excuses for losing that the Democrats do here, it is never about bad policy, it is always some other factor.
More or less. In this case, they have their pick of reasons though.
When Conservatives win, I don’t want suspense, I want to see the Left squirm.
A healthy attitude, but I live for the contest to some extent - and at the moment, I feel like it’s too easy. I’m waiting for the shoe to drop.
Official AEC count now has the coalition on 73, to Labor’s 47. It’s getting close to the official 76.
Looks like the Greens have held their one seat in Melbourne.
Rumour that Kevin Rudd is on the phone to Tony Abbott right now conceding defeat.
All Australian polls have now closed as it is 6pm on the west coast.
I suppose that’s why we have primary elections here in the States. :)
Congratulations!
Current prediction -
53.4-46.7 Coalition/Labor
Clive Palmer looks likely to have been elected in his seat for the Palmer United Party.
Labor has lost 11, Coalition has gained 12 - official number now gives us a majority already.
Labor still on its lowest primary vote since 1934.
Coalition 77 (76 being a majority)
Labor 50
Current prediction:
Coalition 89
Labor 59
Greens 0
Other 2
I remember 1994 when the MSM was crying the entire night!
It doesn't look like Labor took as bad a beating as they thought.
It's not as bad as it could have been for them - and Rudd has probably done better than Gillard - but it is a landslide even on the lowest figures.
Why do you have Green as ‘0’ they have at least 2?
That’s was the current ABC computer prediction. They probably do have 1 - the ABC computer is going back and forth on that - but I do not believe and have seen no evidence that they have 2.
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