Perhaps, perhaps not, but if you look at the electoral map, it is obvious Lincoln's election was a dividing point. If nothing else, it underscores the division inherent in the different states/regions.
The dividing point came earlier, when the Whig party died, and a Republican became Speaker of the House.
Well, there were plenty of hard feelings when Jefferson beat Adams (1800) and when J.Q. Adams "beat" Jackson (1824). The election of Lincoln didn't warrant any "secessions" or a Civil War.
When South Carolina announced its attempt to "secede" in December 1860, we had an extraordinarily weak president (Buchanan) and the "secessionists" correctly predicted that Buchanan was a pushover unable to defend the United States or its Constitution. I think the "secessionists" guessed that by the time Lincoln became president in March, 1861, he would be forced to accept the attempted "secessions" as a fait accompli. They guessed wrong.