Yes, there may be very good candidates on the issues who are just hopeless in terms of mounting a campaign, so many factors have to be taken into account (and we must avoid crackpots like Kurt Bills from Minnesota)
Things seem to be shaping up, but its too early because we don’t know all of the candidates who might run. Obviously if Sarah Palin runs in Alaska, that changes the calculations there dramatically.
Right now, I’m pretty dead set with Arkansas and North Carolina. Louisiana is too murky, and there are ultra-RINOS dominating the races in WV and SD.
The GOP leaders annointed charlie crist for FL. Now the same leadership is pushing him to run as a democrat. his wife (?) is part of a heavy democrat party donor machine. (he married her for the senate race)
It is still inside the beltway vs everyone else.