Meeting Ahmadinejad

Eurasia: Informational and Analytic Portal ^ | July 4, 2013 | Aleksandr Dugin

[annalex]

unprecedented level of opportunities in Russian history for literally everyone

What opportunities? Every business venture is under ethnic mafias, or is raided by the government thugs so that a One Russia (Putin's political "party") apparatchik can take over.

The structure of household expenses is indeed different for those who live in their parents' apartments from the Soviet era, for free. Social mobility requires ability to move, and rents and mortgages quickly turn $20K into what is it in the rest of the world, $20K.

wasn’t that much about oil as advertised

What else is it about?

Russian statistics are about as reliable as the Soviet statistics.

[AdmSmith]

Last time I’ve check Russian economy wasn’t that much about oil as advertised. They have a share of extraction about on par with US in total economy and manufacturing makes larger share in Russian economy than it makes for US.

You might update your info:
The Russian government requires an oil price of above $125 in order to achieve fiscal breakeven. That means that the Russian government is being forced to either postpone spending, or dip into cash reserves, as long as oil prices stay well below that level.
http://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/What-Would-Falling-Oil-Prices-do-to-Russias-Geopolitical-Ambitions.html

[AdmSmith]

If the rumors is correct that Israel has 250 bn barrels of oil (about 150 bn bbl is shale oil), it would for sure make a difference not only on the oil price but as well on the politics in ME. We can see big changes within a few years time.

[cunning_fish]

I don’t know where are you getting it from. I’m particularly familiar with Middle Ural region of Russia (Yekaterinburg city and metro area). Like all the Urals it has little oil and gas if any. Despite that fact Middle Urals (or Sverdlovsk oblast) considered a Russia’s “donor” region. To make things clear I’ll tell that states in Russia divided in two groups of ‘donor’ and ‘recipient’ states. Donors are developed regions and they don’t get any finance from federal government (or supposed oil money you are talking about) and depressive recipient regions’ deficits are financed from their surplus budgets.
Despite getting zero federal (oil?) money, complete lack of oil&gas industry and also being a donor for less fortunate states like Chechnya or Dagestan, Yekaterinburg region is booming. They have numerous recently built 40 and 50+ story buildings in a downtown, the whole city is just like one construction site. There are numerous shopping malls, restaurants full of well dressed people driving around in new SUVs. I guess none of these people are in oil business, a really few of them are mobsters or government employees but they are still OK. What is wrong with this picture?

[cunning_fish]

I think it will be enough for them to cut some social programs to be solvent again.

[cunning_fish]

http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=srR_F6vQYwo

Look at that city, I have just find a video of it on YouTube. A big industrial town on the very edge of Siberia, a town in a class of Detroit or Cleveland but look at how clean and peaceful it is. You can scroll bars in the middle of the night in inner city without risk of getting killed too. Does it looks like a third world hellhole you are talking about?

[AdmSmith]

I think it will be enough for them to cut some social programs to be solvent again.

Is this what you asked for:
The Russian government approved the next three-year budget on July 4. The fiscal plan cuts spending on education and health in favour of a boost for the armed forces.
http://www.bne.eu/story5166/MOSCOW_BLOG_Russia_to_buy_guns_instead_of_books

[annalex]

Remember that pig farm manager complaining how impossible it was for him to get any business done with the power structures the way they are? He was from Yekateringurg area.

And, if things are so great, where is foreign investment in Russia?

[cunning_fish]

I haven’t said it is heaven but I know people doing business and pretty OK there. If it is so good to run a business in US, Canada or France, why all the businesses are moving to SE Asia?

[annalex]

I know people doing business and pretty OK there

Well, so do I, but you are the first not to complain of the pervasive corruption and constant threat of a takeover by better-connected competitor. Plus it does nothing for people on fixed income.

We are not a rose garden here, but the pattern vis-a-vis SE Asia is not relocation but off-shoring labor.

[cunning_fish]

>>>I know people doing business and pretty OK there
Well, so do I, but you are the first not to complain of the pervasive corruption and constant threat of a takeover by better-connected competitor. Plus it does nothing for people on fixed income.

We are not a rose garden here, but the pattern vis-a-vis SE Asia is not relocation but off-shoring labor.<<<

Me too. My first observation is you have to keep out of people who claim they are connected and solves all your problems in Russia.
Thus, it is hard not to swallow a bait under a stress of new environment.
They are a recipe of disaster creating that same problem they are supposed to solve.
I think some 70% of corruption problems foreign businesses expierenced there are just a drama by these “helpers” to steal your money under false pretext of bribing some official or giving it out to mafia for protection.
The problem is these people corrupts your business if trusted too much and one day you can have real problems but it is nothing but your own fault.

Do your business as clean as possible, have a good lawyer and they won’t ever touch you.

[annalex]

you have to keep out of people who claim they are connected

That won't work so well if they ARE connected.